Russian grain exports face a slow restart after a ban is lifted on Friday as main buyers are in no rush to purchase, although shipments may pick up later in the season, a powerful grain lobby said on Thursday. Russia, previously the third-largest wheat exporter, imposed the ban on grain exports from August 15, 2010 to July 1, 2011 to stabilise domestic prices after the country's worst drought in more than a century.
"Everybody expects us to start dumping grain and nobody is ready to buy our grain at international prices," Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, told reporters. He said that grain shipping contracts have been signed with private importers, but loadings will not start on July 1, as the customs will start clearing the grain already held at port silos only after the official lifting of the ban.
The process may take up to a week, Zlochevsky said. He said Russia could export 1.5-1.6 million tonnes of grain in July, some 2 million in August and 2.5 million in September at best. Earlier this month he estimated exports in July-September, the main grain shipping months in Russia, at 8 million tonnes.
Russia has the capacity to export up to 4 million tonnes of grain per month. Zlochevsky said the main buyers of Russian grain in Northern Africa had built up grain stocks that would last about half a year, after which Russia will have a window of opportunity to increase exports.
Egypt, the main importer of Russian wheat, said on Wednesday it had postponed any purchases of Russian cereals until the new Russian harvest was gathered in July so that it could ensure the purchases meet Egyptian conditions. Russian grain prices declined last week as traders suspended purchases or lowered bid prices after Egypt omitted Russian wheat at its latest tender.
Zlochevsky confirmed his previous forecast that Russia could harvest 85-90 million tonnes of grain this year, up from a meagre 61 million in 2010. The wheat crop is expected in the region of 52-56 million tonnes and barley 15.5-16 million tonnes, he said, adding that this would leave the country with an exportable surplus of 20-25 million tonnes. "But in fact we are unlikely to export it all. It will be good if we can export 15-16 million tonnes," he said, referring to the 2011-12 crop year, which starts on July 1.
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