African currency outlook

The Nigerian naira is expected to strengthen in the coming week as oil companies sell dollars, while the Tanzanian shilling is expected to ease due to corporate demand, traders said.
NIGERIA Expected large dollar sales by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) could help support the naira with the local currency expected to trade around 154 to the dollar, traders said. State-owned NNPC is the largest dollar supplier to the interbank market and usually sells about $300-$500 million to some banks on a monthly cycle.
It has yet to sell dollars for April, but sales by other multinational energy firms on Wednesday provided support for the naira, which was trading at 154.80 early on Thursday compared to 154.97 per dollar at Wednesday's close. The central bank sold $350 million at 153.02 to the dollar at its bi-weekly forex auction on Wednesday, below the $383.33 million demanded, but higher than the $250 million sold at 152.92 per dollar at its previous auction.
KENYA The Kenyan shilling is expected to hold steady as the market has factored in the impact of a fuel shortage that has hit east Africa's biggest economy and a workers' strike threat over pay, traders said. The shilling was quoted at 83.70/90, weaker against the dollar than 83.35/45 at last Thursday's close. Traders said the market would be on the lookout for any corporate activity that could determine the direction of the local currency.
UGANDA The Ugandan shilling is expected to hold steady, unless more protests over high food and fuel prices erupt ahead of a presidential inauguration next Thursday. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,380/2,385 on Thursday, weaker than last Thursday's close of 2,370/2,375. The shilling then dropped to 2,390/2,395 on Monday, prompting central bank intervention to stop it sliding to the psychological 2,400 level and to calm worried foreign investors.
TANZANIA The Tanzanian shilling is expected to weaken in coming days, undermined by increased corporate demand for the US currency. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 1,509/1,515 to the dollar compared with 1,490/1,510 at last Thursday's close. Traders said the shilling would likely trade in the 1,510-1,520 range in the coming week.
ZAMBIA The kwacha is expected to remain stable against the dollar in the coming week, with inflows from exporters and foreign investors buying government securities likely to be absorbed. Commercial banks on Thursday quoted the kwacha at 4,720 against the dollar, a slight fall from last week's 4,685.