South Africa's government, which has repeatedly bemoaned the strength of the rand, is probably hoping the currency won't extend this week's Japan-related slide as this would stoke inflation at a time of sluggish growth.
In recent years the ANC government has been under pressure to weaken the rand from its trade union allies, who blamed pressure from a strong currency for leaving almost half of the adult population without jobs. The government has voiced its concern at the rise and taken some limited action to try to weaken the unit, but unlike other emerging markets such as Brazil, South Africa rejected the idea of taxing capital inflows last year, which were the main driver of rand gains.
Analysts say the government wouldn't like to see a dramatic weakening of the rand in a short space of time. "Would authorities over time prefer a rand that is weaker? Yes," said Jeff Gable, head of research at Absa Capital.
"Would they like it to get weaker right away? Probably not, because in the current environment that would generate just as many problems as it might be seen to solve." The rand has gained about 26 percent since the beginning of 2009 - and performed better than emerging peers Brazil and Turkey so far this year - but it slid nearly 7 percent this week as markets panicked that a series of natural disasters in Japan would hamper global growth. There were also signs that Japanese funds and retail investors could repatriate cash held up in foreign exchange denominated bonds, including rand.
Despite a rebound following G7 action to steady the yen, analysts see further weakness for the South African currency in the longer term as foreign capital inflows taper off. More capital could leave the country when the developed world starts raising interest rates.
Rand strength has been positive for inflation though. Inflation has been within the central bank's 3-6 percent target since February 2010. The bank is expecting it to remain in that band until the end of 2012 but is widely expected to raise its forecasts at a Monetary Policy Committee meeting next week in light of higher global oil and food prices.
The favourable inflation environment gave the Reserve Bank room to slash its repo rate by 650 basis points to 5.5 percent, in an effort to stimulate the economy. Manufacturing in Africa's biggest economy was hardest hit by a 2009 recession and is yet to recover fully. Industry is blaming the rand for its woes.
In an effort to weaken the rand, or at least arrest its gains, the government last year stepped up foreign exchange reserves accumulation and relaxed exchange controls.
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