Quake won't boost Japan's rice imports: USDA economist

Japan will not need any significant boost in rice imports this year based on current damage estimates tied to its earthquake and tsunami, a top US Agriculture Department rice expert said on Thursday. But it is likely that Japan will boost imports of perishables needed immediately, such as meat, fruit and vegetables.
"They are probably going to be importing things they need immediately," Andrew Aaronson, rice analyst with the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board, said in a telephone interview. "I wouldn't think they would be importing bulk commodities - they would be looking more toward fruits, vegetables, things that they can immediately eat."
The zones affected by the disaster produce less than 10 percent of the country's rice output, but most land areas were unaffected by the immediate impact, Aaronson said. The quake hit the eastern edges of Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures, while most of the rice paddies are in the west.
"Those provinces account for about 6 percent of Japan's total agricultural land and 10 percent of the paddy area for rice production," Aaronson said. But where soils were permeated with ocean salt water from the tsunami, paddies were undoubtedly destroyed. "Worse than that is that maybe some farmers are gone," he said.
"The rice plant doesn't like salt. They won't be able to plant rice there this year - they will be out for at least one season, maybe longer," he added. Japanese farmers prepare rice paddies in April and begin sowing in May, the same cycle as North America. Rice is Asia's most important food grain. Japanese favour medium-grain rice, similar to the varieties grown in California.
Japan imports about 700,000 tonnes of milled rice every year to meet World Trade Organisation agreements. About half is supplied by the United States, making Japan the second-biggest importer of US rice behind Mexico. "They have plenty of stocks. Probably some stocks were affected - but it was more in the local areas. Overall, for the country, I would think it would be minimal," Aaronson said.
The big unknown is the fallout from the radiation coming from stricken nuclear reactors. "There would be some worry about that, depending on which way the winds are blowing," Aaronson said. "The analysis I just saw was that most of the winds are out of the north-west, blowing to the east away from Japan." Rice markets on the Chicago Board of Trade, the world's largest grain exchange, have been volatile since Japan's quake - closing up by the 50-cent limit on Thursday at $13.26 per hundredweight.