Slow pace of fertility reduction threat to growth: World Bank report

Pakistan's slow pace of fertility reduction is depriving it from getting demographic dividend, besides negatively impacting its efforts meant to enhance per capita income, says a World Bank report. The report added that Pakistan has managed to bring down its population rate from over 3 to slightly below this level in the last one decade, but still it is considered higher posing a threat to its growth and resources.
Pakistan is currently experiencing a demographic transition from a pyramid shape to bell shape or in other words, a population bulge is moving from infants to adolescents. The population projection for 2020 shows the bulge finally moving from cohort of ages, moving infants to adolescents. The demographic transition process indicates importance of skill and education of the current adolescents. Adolescents will form Pakistan work force for next few decades and uplift Pakistan level of income in coming years. The report gives a hope of good days to the new Pakistani generation with better income and better per capita income.
When fertility rate declines, age dependency first falls (with more workers to young dependents) and then rises (as population ages). Declining age dependency ratio results in more workers per dependent, which tends to increase income per capita. In Pakistan's case, slow pace of fertility reduction suggests that the age dependency ratio will decline slowly and the time of reaping dividend will be delayed. There is substantial evidence in Pakistan and elsewhere that higher fertility is associated with lower investment in human capital. It is likely that increased demand for education in the labour market will influence parental choices on fertility and increased education of women as they come of childbearing ages should also lead to lower fertility. However, there is also some evidence that today there is increasing unmet demand for discouraging more children desire to lower down fertility rate at a required rate, the report suggested.
Pakistan's population level has been a serious threat to its economy. Although respective governments considering it a serious problem that hindered Pakistan's pace of progress took a number of initiatives during the last one decade, but there results have either been less than required level or they could not simply make a difference. On population control efforts Pakistan is also faced with a conceptual problem. It is very difficult for the government to make a large section of society relatively less educated or illiterate one to persuade them to buy this concept that less children can help them have a good quality life.