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Markets

LME copper off 1-month low, grim economic outlook weighs

Published Updated

 SINGAPORE: London copper rose on Thursday, recovering from a one-month low hit earlier in the session, but a gloomy outlook for the global economy restrained gains and put prices on track for a fourth straight weekly decline.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was at $7,321 a tonne, up 1.1 percent, by 0703 GMT, after falling as low as $7,100.25, its weakest since Oct. 21.

"The demand outlook is deteriorating," said David Thurtell, director of commodity research at Citigroup in Singapore, who forecast on Nov. 16 that copper may hit $7,250 in the next three months.

"With so much sovereign debt uncertainty and with Western European austerity measures kicking in, copper is likely to trade in the $6,500 to $9,500 range over the period to end-2012."

The most-traded February copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.24 percent to 54,440 yuan a tonne, snapping a four-day losing streak.

A poor outlook for the global economy has kept copper under pressure, as investors grapple with a struggling US economy, a deepening euro zone debt crisis and signs of slowing growth in top copper consumer, China.

There was more bad news on Wednesday after one of Germany's worst bond sales since the launch of euro sparked concerns the debt crisis was starting to threaten even Berlin. The German debt agency could not find buyers for almost half a bond sale of 6 billion euros.

The euro zone's manufacturing sector contracted for a third month, pointing to a fourth-quarter economic contraction of 0.5-0.6 percent, according to survey compilers Markit.

In the United States, consumer spending growth slowed in October and business capital investment plans were weak, raising questions about expectations for solid economic performance in the fourth quarter.

China's factory activity slowed to a 32-month low in November, renewing worries that the world's growth driver may be slipping towards a hard landing and further clouding the demand outlook for copper.

Copper prices were however supported by supply disruptions, such as a three-month strike at Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold's Grasberg Indonesian mine.

Freeport and its Indonesian union are discussing a possible pay deal to end the strike that has crippled output from the world's second-biggest copper mine, which would double pay for some skilled workers.

In Peru, Freeport-McMoRan is facing a strike at its Cerro Verde copper mine. Freeport-McMoRan's chief executive said on Nov. 17 the company was close to settling a 50-day-old strike at its Cerro Verde copper mine in Peru, but two union officials said they did not plan to accept the latest offer.

Trading volumes on Thursday are expected to be light with US markets shut for the Thanksgiving holiday. US trading on Friday will be shortened.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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