For wealthy North, climate change has sunny side

Climate change is expected to have disastrous consequences for Earth but some areas will profit, notably wealthy nations in the northern parts of Europe, Russia and the US, scientists say.
On Thursday the leaders of the Group of Eight club of wealthy nations agreed to pursue substantial cuts to greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming and said they would seriously consider halving emissions by 2050.
But they will remain the main beneficiaries of climate change, with the agriculture, shipping, and oil, gas and mining sectors among those that are expected to prosper as snow and ice melts in the north.
"The rich countries of the north are going to be winners of climate change, while the poor countries of the south are going to be losers," Jann-Gunnar Winther, director of the Norwegian Polar Institute, told AFP during a global warming conference held in the Arctic town of Tromsoe this week. Agriculture in the polar region is expected to expand as the farming season increases with the temperature.
"It will be easier than before to grow food in areas such as northern Siberia and northern Canada," Paal Prestrud, author of a UN report on the melting of snow and ice published this week, told AFP.
"With more days with an average of five degrees C (41 degrees F), agriculture will improve considerably," he added. Fishing in the northern seas could expand too.
"The herring, the tuna and the brisling are slowly going north (to the most northern parts of the Atlantic Ocean)," explained Winther, pointing out however that the Arctic cod, the key natural resource in the Barents Sea, could also move even northwards and eastwards, farther afield from fishermen.
"The forestry industry could grow too," said Winther, as warmer temperatures means trees can grow at higher latitudes.
Summer tourism could increase in northern European countries, as Italy, Spain and Greece become too hot in July and August. In winter, "northern parts of Finland, Sweden and Norway could become the new skiing playgrounds" as the Alps and Pyrenees become greener, Winther said. And even nations not usually known for their wine production could produce a better tipple.
"The UK could produce a better quality of white wine because the grapes will improve," Prestrud said. "But Bordeaux wines may reduce in quality as it gets warmer," he added.
Commercial shipping would also expand as the ice sheet shrinks, with navigation days in the Arctic Ocean increasing from 30 days today to between 120 and 140 days by the end of the century.
"A ship from Rotterdam to Japan would take 10 days less through the Arctic Ocean than through the Suez Canal, even less if the North Pole becomes ice-free," Prestrud said.
But perhaps the most cash-rich advantage would be the increased accessibility to oil and gas resources in the Arctic, a process partly enabled by global warming. The polar region holds a quarter of the world's untapped petroleum reserves, according to the US Geological Survey.
Russian gas company Gazprom is already looking to develop the oil and gas fields of northern Siberia and the Barents Sea, including Shtokman, the world's largest offshore gas field.
"There is no doubt in my mind that the increased interest in the (polar region) is linked to this increased openness," Prestrud said. Even some of the countries expected to suffer badly from climate change, such as Greenland, are getting ready for the economic rush.
"We are looking forward to getting out more oil, gas and minerals," Eskild Lund Soerensen, climate co-ordinator at the environment ministry of Greenland Home Rule, the governing body of the Danish territory, told AFP. "This is an opportunity to be completely self-sustaining, (and) no longer live off the subsidies from Denmark and create jobs for local people," he added.
The Danish territory is believed to hold significant amounts of gold, rubies and diamonds. It started extracting gold about five years ago. "Our office in charge of awarding prospecting concessions is swamped with work," Lund Soerensen said, pointing out, however, some of the numerous disadvantages that climate change has on Greenland.
For instance, Inuit hunters are having problems hunting polar bears, walruses and seals, because the sea ice is retreating. "They have to find alternate routes or not go because the ice is too thin," he said.
Climate change scientists also warn that the Greenland ice sheet could melt completely if the planet's temperature rises too much, dramatically increasing sea levels around the world.
ARCTIC WAY OF LIFE THREATENED BY GLOBAL WARMING:
Hundreds of thousands of indigenous people living in the Arctic region may have to abandon their traditional way of life if global warming is not halted, indigenous community leaders warned this week.
"The foundation of our hunting culture is the cold. It needs it to continue and thrive," Sheila Watt-Cloutier, a Canadian Inuit activist -- and a nominee for this year's Nobel Peace Prize -- told a climate change conference held this week in the Norwegian town of Tromsoe.
Around 155,000 Inuits live in northern Canada, Alaska and Greenland.
Over the past 30 years, the Arctic ice sheet has been steadily shrinking, with the snow-covered regions of the northern hemisphere also reducing. The Arctic is warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world, according to scientists.
It is now feared global warming will jeopardise traditional activities that depend on snow and ice, such as reindeer husbandry or hunting.
This would affect not only the Inuits, but also the Samis, who live across northern Scandinavia and Russia, and the Nenets and the Chukchees of northern Siberia, among others. Already Inuit hunters looking for polar bears, seals or walruses are having problems with the sea ice forming too late in the autumn and breaking up too early in the spring. And even when it is formed, the ice is not strong enough and is dangerous, Watt-Cloutier said.
"We have had more accidents and deaths as a result of that," she told AFP. Hunters have had to adapt to these new conditions, Watt-Cloutier explained.
"Because they are so wise and ingenious, our hunters are already learning to read quickly which ice is safe and which is not. They reroute themselves to get to the same place they used to go to directly before," she said.
"They know that storms come up quicker than before. So they take more food and fuel when they are travelling," she added. But adaptation can only work up to a point.
"Because our hunting culture is based on the cold, the ice and snow, climate change is deteriorating and damaging the very foundations upon which our culture is based," she explained. She described global warming as a violation of human rights.
"It will diminish and damage our rights to hunt, culture, health, subsistence, property, safety or security, which are all defined in the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights," she said.
Similarly for the Samis, "change is coming so fast that our traditional way of life is threatened," Johan Mikkel Sara, vice president of the Sami parliament in Norway, told AFP.
Many among the Samis, numbering about 100,000 people, depend on reindeer husbandry for their livelihood. Usually, reindeer spend the winter on the inland plateau of northern Scandinavia and migrate about mid-April to the Barents Sea coast, where they stay until around mid-October. But problems have arisen.
"Some herders have had to delay the migration to the coast by a month because it was too mild. Rivers and lakes were not frozen enough to cross," Elna Sara from the International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry told AFP. Traditionally the reindeer walk across the plateau to reach the coast, while the herders themselves use snowmobiles or four-wheel motorbikes.
But, Sara explained, "in the past five years, some herders have had to put the reindeers in trucks to make the migration." Reindeer also have more difficulties finding food these days.
"It rains more often in winter. If it freezes afterwards, the snow is covered with ice and the reindeers can't dig through to find lichen," explains Sara, dressed in a gaki, a traditional Sami costume with detailed embroideries and silver jewellery.
And new insect species from southern regions are threatening the animals. Wood ticks, which up until now were found in southern Norway, have started migrating north because of warmer temperatures.
"They suck the blood out of reindeer and give them infections and diseases," Johan Mikkel Sara told AFP. "The future is becoming too unpredictable. If it continues like this, reindeer husbandry might have to stop," he added.
"Change is happening so fast that traditional people may not have the capacity to adapt ... If traditional activities become too difficult, people may decide to abandon them, move to the big cities and get 'normal' jobs," he said.