Pakistan’s GDP grows 3.65% in FY2026, economy size reaches $450bn: NAC

Pakistan has posted a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.65% during FY2026, estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday showed.

The growth is lower than the 3.70% estimated by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) during the previous meeting, indicating a slower pace of economic expansion than earlier expected.

“The updated growth rates in agriculture, industry, and services are 3.50%, 3.34%, and 3.81%, compared with earlier growth rates of 2.89%, 3.51%, and 4.09%, respectively,” said NAC in its 118th meeting held today.

In agriculture, important crops improved from 0.65% to 1.59% due to wheat and maize; other crops have witnessed significant improvement from 2.43% to 4.28% due to higher production of pulses (6.3%), fruits (1.3%), tomato (44%), oilseed (5.4%), and green fodder (2.4%).

Meanwhile, livestock decreased slightly from 3.75% to 3.71% because of increased fodder inputs. Further, updated growth rates in forestry and fishing are 10.80% and 1.39%, respectively.

According to NAC, the updated growth in industry during FY2026 is 3.34% as compared to 3.51% estimated previously.

The mining and quarrying industry has improved from 0.38% to 1.52% due to improvement in gas (2.84%), crude oil (5.12%), and coal (2.73%). Large-scale manufacturing (LSM), which is measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), has declined from 6.11% to 5.01%, the release said.

Meanwhile, the services industry has declined from 4.09% to 3.81% in FY2026, with positive contributions from all the constituents.

“Wholesale and retail trade declined to +2.37% from 3.71% due to a decrease in manufacturing and imports.

“Transport and storage industry improved to +3.23% from 2.31% due to upward revisions reported in railways, water transport, and air transport.

“While information & communication increased from 7.52% to +9.53%, finance & insurance also improved from 0.32% to +4.23% due to improvement in the insurance industry,” NAC added.

Size of economy

According to NAC, based on the latest figures of the national accounts aggregates for FY2026, the overall size of the economy stands at Rs126.4 trillion, i.e., $450.4 billion, as compared to Rs114.9 trillion, i.e., $408.7 billion in the previous year.

Further, per capita income in PKR for FY2026 is 531,897/- i.e., $1896/, the NAC data showed.

Quarterly figures

The committee approved revised quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1, Q2, Q3 and a fresh growth rate for Q4 during FY2026.

Overall GDP witnessed a slight downward revision in Q1 from 3.92% to 3.89% and upward revisions in the second and third quarters from 4.05% to 4.31% for Q2, and from 3.99% to 4.42% for Q3.

“These changes mainly reflect upward revisions to annual benchmarks in agriculture, boosting growth rates from 2.95% to 3.18% in Q1, from 2.64% to 3.34% in Q2, and from 3.01% to 3.79% in Q3.

“Due to revisions in annual benchmarks and updated indicators, the industry has witnessed changes in all three quarters, from 7.80% to 7.76% in Q1, from 6.68% to 6.62% in Q2, and from 4.65% to 4.87% in Q3.

“While services declined slightly from 3.16% to 3.04% in Q1, upward revisions were observed in Q2, from 3.83% to 4.0%, and in Q3, from 4.18% to 4.54%,” said NAC.

Pakistan’s GDP posted a growth of 2.0% during Q4 of FY2026. Growth in agriculture, industry, and services stood at +3.71%, -4.70% and 3.62%, respectively.