SINGAPORE: US oil may test a support at $81.12 per barrel, a break below could cause a fall to $79.99.
A five-wave cycle from $66.04 could have ended, immediately after a blow-off above the upper trendline of a rising wedge. Bulls had exhausted their final strength, but still failed to push the price to $83.69, the ultimate target.
The bearish divergence on the hourly MACD would guarantee a further slide. A break above $82.28, which looks highly unlikely, may lead to a gain limited to $83.69.
On the daily chart, oil failed to break a resistance zone of $82.28 to $83.08.
The failure marked a completion of a wave B, which could be totally reversed by a downward wave C.
A realistic target is $76.63, which is pointed by a rising channel.
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