SINGAPORE: US oil may peak around a key resistance at $83.69 per barrel, as suggested by its wave pattern and the hourly MACD.
A five-wave cycle from $66.04 is ending, as the fifth wave labelled v looks exhausted around $83.69. This wave, along with the several preceding waves, has been unfolding within a rising wedge which looks like a top pattern.
The bearish divergence on the hourly MACD became valid again, after temporarily being violated.
These bearish readings simply can't be ignored even though oil has broken a resistance at $82.28.
On the daily chart, the rise from $62.43 will seem to have been driven by a wave B, until oil climbs far above $85.41.
This wave is highly likely to end below $85.41, to be totally or partially reversed by a wave C.
A decent correction to $76.63 may still occur if the wave count turns out to be incorrect.
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