SINGAPORE: CBOT September wheat may retest a support at $5.02-1/2 per bushel, a break below which could cause a fall into the range of $4.76-3/4 to $4.92-1/4.
The support is provided by the 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from $6.24-1/4 to $4.27-1/4. It triggered a weak bounce which failed to extend to the resistance at $5.25-3/4. The failure suggests a strong bearish sentiment.
However, compared to the circled part of the chart, the bounce looks too unsymmetrical to complete. Wheat may fail to break the support and then bounce again towards $5.25-3/4.
A fall to the July 3 low of $5.01 may confirm the break below $5.02-1/2 and the target range formed by the 61.8% and the 50% retracements of the uptrend from $4.27-1/4 to $5.57-1/4.
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** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses. **