SINGAPORE: CBOT July wheat may test a support at $4.23-1/4, a break below which could cause a loss to $4.14.
The support is provided by the 114.6% projection level of a downward wave C from $5.40-1/4. This wave may travel into a range of $3.99-1/4 to $4.14, as pointed by a falling trendline.
The wave C could be broken down into many smaller waves. Wheat is riding on a small wave 5 which is expected to extend below the bottom of the preceding wave 3 at $4.26, the April 30 low.
On the hourly chart, a wedge has been more or less confirmed as a bearish continuation pattern, which suggests a target around $4.16.
Resistance is at $4.33-3/4, the 14.6% retracement of the downtrend from $4.79-3/4 to $4.26, a break above which could make the pattern invalid, and a bullish target at $4.38-1/2 will be established.
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** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses. **
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