ISTANBUL: Turkey's closely-watched current account is expected to record a relatively small deficit of $850 million in February, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, as a recession continues to dampen costly imports.
Turkey's current account deficit, which reached $58 billion on an annual basis in May, has been a main concern of investors because it makes the economy reliant on speculative foreign inflows to make up the shortfall. The deficit recovered ground through the second half of 2018 as a currency crisis sent inflation soaring and put a brake on imports.
The median estimate in a Reuters poll of 15 economists showed a deficit of $850 million in February, with estimates ranging between $500 million and $1.48 billion.
The current account deficit is continuing the declining trend brought on by the contraction of trade deficit since last year, said Haluk Burumcekci, who runs Burumcekci Research and Consulting, adding that the trend would continue despite some signs of it slowing down.
"There could be a surplus due to seasonality in July, August and September when tourism is high. If the economy recoups very fast, it could limit that by pulling imports up but there is currently no sign of that," he said.
The annual deficit is expected to stand at $18.5 billion this year, according to the Reuters poll of 12 economists. Estimates ranged between a deficit of $11.7 billion and $23.3 billion. The median estimate in a previous Reuters poll for 2019 was $19 billion.
The annual deficit shrank significantly last year, falling to $27.8 billion from $47.35 billion in 2017.
The trade deficit, which constitutes the largest portion of the current account balance, tumbled 63.1 percent year-on-year in February to $2.13 billion, according to data from Turkey's Statistical Institute.
The central bank is expected to announce February current account data at 0700 GMT on April 11.
Comments
Comments are closed for this article.