What if...differently

Got a funny joke on Whatsapp, which is the genesis of today's attempt to bore my readers with drivel.
"My grandfather told me that he saw the titanic, he warned everyone that it would sink but nobody would listen. He told people a few more times and then he was kicked out of the cinema". Something similar to the joke about the chap who when asked why was he watching the movie again for the umpteenth time, replied, "On the hope that the idiot will eventually see the lion coming".
Until such time that a Time Machine is invented, nothing much can be done about the sinking of the Titanic; albeit as regards the movie, perhaps someday they do a remake where the idiot sees the lion.
What if... is a genre of speculative fiction, if you may, where alternate history is constructed on the assumption that key events in history had not happened or happened differently.
As an example, the key "What if" questions for Pakistan might include: What if the Quaid had lived for a few more years after independence? Or to flip this particular "What if", What if Gandhi had died in Africa? What if we had won the 1971 war? What if Bhutto had not been assassinated? What if General Zia had not been assassinated? What if Benazir Bhutto had not been assassinated? What if Russian had won in Afghanistan? What if Pakistan had started building the Kalabagh Dam in 2000?
And then there are the more mundane "What if" scenarios which float around in relation to the country's economy: What if we had not nationalised the private sector in the 70s? What if we had not gone after the 22 families? What if we had not allowed multiple landing rights to foreign airlines? What if we had not indiscriminately opened up our markets to foreign competition? What if we had replicated China's economic policies in the 90s? What if we had spent more on education over the last many years? What if we had gone for planned industrialisation via the private sector over the last two decades even?
The more recent, let's say over the last decade, "What if" questions might include: What if we had controlled oil consumption through higher prices when oil was trading over US$ 100 per barrel, and what if we did just that right now? What if we had focused on the profitability of key State Owned Enterprises rather than burdening them with more employees or privatising them? What if we had been more imaginative with our tax policies rather than practising regressive taxes and incentivising trade? What if we were focused on the trade deficit rather than being obsessed with GDP? What if we had managed to nudge the informal economy into the documented economy? What if we had released the capital locked in property disputes in courts? What if we had not borrowed so much externally? What if CPEC was negotiated differently? What if the Rupee had depreciated earlier?
Admittedly, the above is not an all inclusive list and those with a more fertile imagination can definitely come up with a lot more, and perhaps more entertaining, questions. And while the argument that building fictional "What if" scenario is an exercise in futility may not be farfetched, it does miss a critical purpose. As someone wise once said, if you don't learn from history, history will repeat itself.
Ever since transitioning back to democracy about a decade ago, which some categorise as an extremely fortunate development for Pakistan, all the three successive governments have come in and cribbed that the economy they inherited was in a mess. On the other hand, the exiting two governments insist that they did wonders for the economy during their reign, and had they been allowed by the electorate to continue, things might have continued on the path to economic glory. Another "What if"!
The laymen amongst us are utterly confused; so who is right? As a suggestion, when negotiating with IMF, perhaps we can, as a first step, ask them to carry out an analysis and independently tell us, were we in a mess in 2008, 2013 and 2018, and also enlighten us on what would have happened if we had continued with the previous government's policies. A "What was" and "What if"!
Based on the answers we get, which should be made public, we than need to isolate the decisions which brought us to where we are today. Without any attempt to pollute opinions, and IMF findings if they do make public an analysis on the parameters discussed earlier, the fact alone that we today are desperate to borrow billions of dollars does evidence that we needed to have done at least something otherwise.
It therefore makes perfect sense that we carry out an analysis of the past ten years and identify the decisions and policies which did not work the way we had imagined and figure out which decision and policies might have resulted in meeting the desired objectives. This will not be a exercise in futility and should we chose to ignore the past there is a strong likelihood that five years down, the next government would be cribbing about the economy again. What if...differently!
(The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad. Email: [email protected])