Slow French wheat exports raise risk of further forecast cut

France faces the prospect of a further cut to its official forecast for soft wheat exports outside the EU after customs data showed shipments slowed in January, while port data indicated volumes tailed off again in February. France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, has faced stiff overseas competition led by Russia, curbing attempts to sell a higher-quality 2017 French crop overseas and leaving France more reliant on exports within the EU.
French soft wheat exports outside 28-country EU came to 747,000 tonnes in January, down from a season's high of 792,000 tonnes in December, customs data showed on Wednesday. The January volume took French soft wheat shipments outside the EU since the start of the 2017/18 marketing season in July to 4.30 million tonnes, up 54 percent from a year earlier when exports were curbed by a poor French crop.
Shipping data compiled by Reuters indicates that cumulative soft wheat exports had reached 5.0 million tonnes as of March 7, including a February volume of just 538,000 tonnes. This suggests France would have to export 1 million tonnes a month for the rest of the July-June season, well above the pace seen so far, to meet the 9 million tonnes currently forecast by farming agency FranceAgriMer. The agency has already cut its export outlook in each of the past four months, but private analysts see exports closer to 8 million tonnes.
Algeria remained the leading destination for French wheat in January with nearly 315,000 tonnes shipped, underlining France's reliance this season on the North African country. French soft wheat exports beyond the EU were continuing to lag shipments within the bloc. French intra-EU soft wheat shipments had reached 4.66 million tonnes by the end of January, up 65 percent from a year earlier, the customs data showed.