Zloty weakens; regional PMIs are mixed

BUDAPEST: Central European currencies were mixed on Monday after mixed reports on the region's manufacturing with the Purchasing Managers' Index for Poland, the region's biggest economy, dropping to its lowest in almost two years.

The drop to 51.4 in August from 52.9 in July, and the lowest export orders in years, signal that Poland's economic growth will slow in the second half of the year, BZ BWK analysts said in a note.

"We expect real data for August to confirm the weakening of business activity the recent sentiment indices suggest," they said.

After the figures, the Polish central bank is unlikely to give up its loose policy stance, which it retained even after second-quarter output figures showed robust 5.1 percent growth.

The zloty weakened 0.1 percent against the euro by 0936 GMT, to 4.298.

A rebound in Turkey's lira helped the region's currencies, after its weakness caused some jitters in the past weeks in emerging markets.

Accelerating inflation in the region, fuelled by a surge in wages, has not worried Poland's central bank, unlike its Czech counterpart, which has raised rates five times since August last year and is expected to continue to increase them.

The Czech PMI dropped to 54.9 in August from 55.4 in July -- below the 55.2 forecast, but still indicating healthy growth. The Czech crown gained 0.1 percent to 25.75.

Hungary's PMI jumped to 56.2 from 53.3. The Hungarian central bank is expected to maintain its loose policy, although its Sept. 18 meeting may provide some guidance about how it will phase out its long-term interest rate swaps, BofA Merrill Lynch analysts said in a poll.

"We expect the central bank to be careful not to send any signals about the start of policy normalisation for the short-end, for fear of renewed HUF appreciation," they said, adding that it would take 5 percent or more weakening in the forint to make the bank worried over inflation.

The currency was steady at 326.8 against the euro.

Warsaw led a rise in most of the region's main equities indices, gaining 1.1 percent.

Regional government bond yields mostly tracked Bunds higher.

Romania's three-year yield was bid steady at 4 percent before an auction. A decline in Romania's inflation has supported demand for its bonds at recent auctions.