US natural gas futures ended up over 3 percent on Thursday on forecasts for stronger demand over the next two weeks and an expected smaller-than-normal storage build. On its second to last day as the front-month, July gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up 9.1 cents at $2.85 per million British thermal units.
August futures, which will be the front-month in a couple days, meanwhile, gained about 8 cents to $2.87 per mmBtu. The US Energy Information Administration said utilities added 75 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended June 19.
That was close to the 77 bcf analysts estimated in a Reuters poll and compared with builds of 89 bcf in the prior week, 110 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average increase of 86 bcf.
The latest Global Forecast System weather model for the lower 48 US states called for warmer, above-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, with 213 population-weighted cooling degree days. That compared with Wednesday's forecast of 206 and a 30-year norm of 182 CDDs. With the warmer weather, Thomson Reuters Analytics forecast consumption in the lower 48 would rise to an average 60.0 billion cubic feet per day over the next two weeks. That compared with Wednesday's forecast of 59.8 bcfd and a 30-year norm of 55.3 bcfd.
Despite the warm weather, residential, commercial and industrial customers were only using near normal amounts of gas, while power generators burned much more of the fuel because of its relatively low cost compared with coal. Power generators were expected to burn 32.2 bcfd of gas on average over the next two weeks, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics. That compared with 26.2 bcfd a year earlier and a 30-year norm of 27.0 bcfd.
In an effort to keep coal more competitive with gas, traders sold coal futures down to a new 2007 low for a seventh day out of the past nine. That helped keep the premium of gas futures over coal above $1 per mmBtu for 13 days in a row for the first time since December, making it more likely some generators will continue burning coal instead of gas. Production, meanwhile, was expected to ease to 71.4 bcfd in the lower 48 on Thursday from 72.2 bcfd on Wednesday. That compared with 69.7 bcfd a year ago and an all-time high of 74.5 bcfd in December.
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