Tough competition is expected between Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) on two National Assembly seats - NA-104 and NA-105 - in Gujrat; while Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and PML-N would fight it out on May 11 on four provincial assembly seats - PP-108, PP-109, PP-110 and PP-111.
National Assembly seats NA-104 and NA-105 are home constituencies of the Chaudhry Brothers of Gujrat. In these constituencies, a tough competition has always been witnessed between candidates of the Chaudhry family and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). But this time around, according to a survey conducted by Business Recorder, the situation has changed and candidates of PTI and PML-N are emerging stronger compared to PPP candidates.
In the past, voting in rural areas of these constituencies, as opposed to urban areas, was on the basis of 'Biradrism' for example Jatts, Gujjars, Arains, Butts and Kashmiris. and both PPP and Chaudhrys' candidates rely on Biradrism rural areas for votes.
NA-104 Gujrat-I constituency covers most of rural areas such as Jalalpur Jattan, Tanda, Awan Sharif, Jalalpur Sobtyan, Malakpur, Hajiwala and many villages. Major Biradries living in NA-104 Gujrat constituency are Gujars, Arains, Butts, Jatts, Waraichs and Kashmiris. Their support is divided: some of them back the Chaudhrys while others PPP and PML-N.
PML-Q dominates in NA-104, which is the home town of PML-Q leaders Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Chaudhry Pervez Elahi who have completed many development projects, in particular Gujrat University during the Musharraf regime. There are two provincial assembly seats in NA-104 Gujrat-I - PP-108 and PP-109 - with a total of 311,343 registered votes. Three major candidates, Chaudhry Wajahat Hussain of PML-Q who is the brother of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, former MNA and MPA Nawabzada Mazhar Ali Khan of PML-N and Usman Ali Tariq of PTI are contesting elections.
On the provincial assembly seats, PML-Q has fielded Chaudhry Shafaat Hussain, the younger brother of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain from PP-109 and Shujaat Nawaz Ajnala from PP-108, PML-N candidates Major (R) Moeen Nawaz Warraich from PP-109, Nawalazada Haider Mehdi from PP108, PTI candidates Bilal Ahmed from PP-109 and Abdul Hameed Butt from PP-108.
Recently, a group from Nawabzada family including ex-MPA Nawabzada Mazhar Ali Khan, earlier associated with PPP, joined the PML-N due to their reservations over the PPP's alliance with their arch rivals, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat. Mazhar Ali is elder brother of PPP stalwart Nawabzada Ghazanfar Ali Gul who is a senior member of the PPP's central executive committee and was an adviser to the prime minister. Ghaznafar Gul of PPP had been a member of the Punjab as well as National Assembly back in 1988 and 1993, respectively. Despite defections Gul has vowed to remain a PPP loyalist. However he is contesting elections from an independent platform because the PPP did not award him a ticket due to seat adjustment with PML-Q on NA-104.
Interestingly Ghazanfar Gul's son, Nawabazada Haider Mehdi, is contesting election on the PML-N ticket from PP-108. Biradari votes would be divided between brothers, Nawabzada Mazhar Ali Khan in PML-N and Chazanfar Gul, independent candidate, and this situation may go in favour of Chaudhry Wajahat Hussain who may win the elections. But a tough competition is expected between the PML-N and PML-Q candidates if Ghazanfar Gul withdraws in favour of his brother Nawabzada Mazhar Ali Khan.
According to the survey conducted by the Business Recorder, there is neck and neck competition between Major (Retd) Moeen Nawaz of PML-N and Chaudhry Shafaat Hussain of PML-Q from PP-109. On the other hand, the position of Nawabzada Haider Mehdi of PML-N is strong as compared to Shujaat Nawaz of PML-Q from PP-108. The position of PTI's candidate is not strong as compared to candidates of other parties like PML-Q and PML-N.
In 2008 general elections, Chaudhry Wajahat Husain won with 96379 votes while PPP's Nawabzada Chazanfar Ali Gul was runner up who bagged 63374 votes while Syed Faisal Abbas of PML-N was third with 8927 votes. In 2002 election, Chaudhry Wajat Hussain won with 82126 votes while Nawabzada Ghazanfar Ali Gull of PPP bagged 62651 votes and Qari Muhammad Liqat Ali of MMA was third with 5587 votes.
NA-105 Gujrat II, is one of the most discussed constituencies with a tough battle invariably witnessed between PML-Q and PPP. But this time PML-Q's candidate on national assembly seat has a relatively stronger position compared to PPP's candidate. This is also home town of PML-Q central leaders-Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Chaudhry Pervez Elahi.
NA 105 Gujrat II constituency is dominated by Jutt, Gujjar, warraich and Butt clans and is divided between Chaudhris and anti Chudhris vote. PP 110 and PP 111 are the two provincial assembly constituencies that comprise of NA 105 Gujrat area. The NA-105 covers most of the urban areas and biradrisaism is not a major factor in this constituency but it has been a stronghold of Chaudhry brothers.
According to the survey, people are not happy with PPPP candidate Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar's performance during the recently completed five year tenure of the PPP led coalition government. Most of the people surveyed complained that Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar did nothing for them nor did he launch any mega development project in the area and avoided his constituency during the five year's of his party's rule while occupying senior ministerial slots.
NA-105 Gujrat-II comprises of two provincial assembly seats-- PP-110 and PP-111 with a total of 332,332 registered votes with four major contestants: Chaudhry Pervez Elahi of PML-Q, Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar of PPP, Chaudhry Mubashir Hussain of PML-N and Al-Haj Muhammad Gondal of PTI.
From PP-110 the PPP's candidate is Tahir Mehmood Warrach, Zahid Hussain Saleemi from PP-111, and PML-Q's candidates are Chaudhry Moonis Elahi elder son of Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi from PP-110, Mian Imran Masood relative of Chaudhris from PP-111, PML-N's candidates Chaudhry Raza Matta from PP-110, Haji Imran Zafar from PP-111 while PTI candidates are Saleem Sarwar Jorra, son of former PPP MPA Chaudhry Sarwar Jorra; Chaudhry Ifitkhar Ahmed Samaa are contesting general elections on May 11 on provincial assembly seats.
Although, PPP and PML-Q enjoyed a coalition government for five years and Pervez Elahi served as deputy prime minister, the seat adjustment deal between the two parties was not possible in NA-105 Gujrat and both parties have fielded their own candidates.
Chaudhry Pervez Elahi has started an intensive door to door campaign in the area and a large number of notables, including former PML-N senior vice president from Gujrat and others have joined PML-Q. The Chaudhrys have focused their campaign in rural areas.
According to the survey, Saleem Sarwar Jorra, son of former MPA Chaudhry Sarwar Jorra, of PTI from PP-11 is leading the polls while tough competition is expected between PTI and PML-N candidates on provincial seats. The position of PPP's candidates is weak on provincial seats.
In 2008, Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhatar won NA-105 seat with 79,735 votes while Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain was the runner up, bagging 65,738 votes, and Chaudhry Gul Nawaz (Independent) was third with 444 votes. In 2002 elections Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain won with 66809 votes while Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar bagged 52,632 votes and Hafiz Amjad Shaheen Warriach of MMA was third with 6,819 votes.
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