ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy has registered a growth rate 3.65 percent in Financial Year (FY) 2025-26, slightly below the previously estimated 3.70 percent growth, while GDP growth stood at 2 percent in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal, according to updated national accounts estimates approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC).
The NAC data released here on Monday by Pakistan Bureau of Statistic (PBS), said that the revised estimates place the size of Pakistan’s economy at Rs126.4 trillion, equivalent to USD 450.4 billion, in FY2025-26, compared with Rs114.9 trillion and USD 408.7 billion, respectively, in the previous year.
The country’s per capita income reached to Rs531,897, or USD 1,896, during the period. The committee also revised GDP growth for FY25 to 3.11 percent from the earlier estimate of 3.18 percent.
READ MORE: NAC releases Q3 FY 2025-26 GDP estimates, showing 4pc YoY growth
The committee approved the incorporation of revised imports data in the national accounts estimates from FY 2021 to FY 2025, quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1 (Revised), Q2 (Revised), Q3 (Revised), and Q4 during FY 2026 and updated annual growth rates for FY 2025 and FY 2026.
In the updated estimates, agriculture has declined from 1.53 percent to 1.32 percent due to downward revision in forestry.
The updated growth in industry is 5.46 percent as against 5.56 percent estimated previously due to decline in mining and quarrying from -3.73 percent to -4.01 percent and electricity, gas, and water supply from 29.60 percent to 28.87 percent. The overall growth in services is 3.13 percent against previous estimate of 3.14 percent.
While wholesale and retail trade has declined from 0.48 percent to 0.27 percent, the transportation & storage industry has improved from 2.54 percent to 2.87 percent.
The committee also approved the updated annual growth of GDP at 3.65 percent during FY 2026, which was estimated at 3.70 percent during the previous meeting. The updated growth rates in agriculture, industry, and services are 3.50 percent, 3.34 percent, and 3.81 percent, compared with earlier growth rates of 2.89 percent, 3.51 percent, and 4.09 percent, respectively.
In agriculture, important crops improved from 0.65 percent to 1.59 percent due to wheat and maize, other crops have witnessed significant improvement from 2.43 percent to 4.28 percent due to higher production of Pulses 6.3 percent, fruits 1.3 percent, tomato 44 percent, oilseed 5.4 percent, and green fodder 2.4 percent.
Livestock decreased slightly from 3.75 percent to 3.71 percent because of increased fodder inputs. Further, updated growth rates in forestry and fishing are 10.80 percent and 1.39 percent.
The updated growth in industry during FY 2026 is 3.34 percent as compared to 3.51 percent estimated previously. The mining and quarrying industry has improved from 0.38 percent to 1.52 percent due to improvement in Gas 2.84 percent, crude oil 5.12 percent, and coal 2.73 percent. Large-scale manufacturing (LSM), which is measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), has declined from 6.11 percent to 5.01 percent.
The major LSM groups with positive contributions are Food 7.03 percent, tobacco 12.61 percent, petroleum products 9.7 percent, rubber products 14.19 percent, electrical equipment 14.25 percent, automobiles 57.77 percent), transport equipment 42.36 percent, furniture 22.69 percent, and Other manufacturing Football16.62 percent.
However, some LSM groups, e.g., Pharmaceuticals’ growth declined by -8.87 percent, Iron and steel products 7.84 percent, chemicals 2.53 percent, and leather products 1.95 percent.
The electricity, gas and water supply industry improved slightly to negative 10.24 percent from negative 10.63 percent, mainly due to increased output from Distribution Companies. The construction industry has improved from 5.73 percent to 6.30 percent because of increased construction-related expenditure in the public sector.
The services industry has declined from 4.09 percent to 3.81 percent in FY 2026, with positive contributions from all the constituents. Wholesale and Retail Trade declined to +2.37 percent from 3.71 percent due to decrease in manufacturing and imports. Transport and Storage industry improved to +3.23 percent from 2.31 percent due to upward revisions reported in railways, water transport, and air transport.
While Information and communication increased from 7.52 percent to +9.53 percent, the finance and insurance also improved from 0.32 percent to +4.23 percent due to improvement in the insurance industry.
The remaining components of services i.e. Public administration and social security from 8.54 percent to +5.67 percent, education from 5.23 percent to +4.17 percent, human health and social work from 6.85 percent to +5.52 percent, and other private services from 3.69 percent to +4.01 percent, have remained on a positive trajectory despite mixed adjustments.
Based on the latest figures of the national accounts aggregates for FY 2026, the overall size of the economy stands at Rs.126.4 trillion, i.e., USD 450.4 billion, as compared to Rs114.9 trillion, i.e., USD 408.7 billion in the previous year. Further, per capita income in rupees for FY 2026 is 531,897/- i.e. USD 1896-.
The committee approved revised quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1, Q2, & Q3 and a fresh growth rate for Q4 during FY 2025-26. Overall GDP witnessed slight downward revision in Q1 from 3.92 percent to 3.89 percent and upward revisions in the second and third quarters from 4.05 percent to 4.31 percent for Q2, and from 3.99 percent to 4.42 percent for Q3. These changes mainly reflect upward revisions to annual benchmarks in agriculture, boosting growth rates from 2.95 percent to 3.18 percent in Q1, from 2.64 percent to 3.34 percent in Q2, and from 3.01 percent to 3.79 percent in Q3.
Due to revisions in annual benchmarks and updated indicators, the industry has witnessed changes in all three quarters, from 7.80 percent to 7.76 percent in Q1, from 6.68 percent to 6.62 percent in Q2, and from 4.65 percent to 4.87 percent in Q3. While services declined slightly from 3.16 percent to 3.04 percent in Q1, upward revisions were observed in Q2, from 3.83 percent to 4 percent and in Q3, from 4.18 percent to 4.54 percent.
Due to a high base growth of 6.07 percent in the corresponding quarter i.e. Q4 FY2025, the economy has posted a modest growth of 2percent during Q4 of FY 2026. Growth in agriculture, industry, and services stood at +3.71 percentvs.0.58 percent, -4.70 percent vs.20 percent, and +3.62 percent vs. 4.21 percent, respectively. In agriculture, important crops expanded by +2.21 percent, other crops grew by +2.62 percent due to higher output of Pulses 39.6 percent), Fruits 4.1 percent, Tomato 14 percent, and Green Fodder 0.3 percent.
Livestock 3.92 percent, forestry 14.96 percent, and fishing 1.33 percent have also registered positive growth rates during Q4 FY 2026. In contrast to the first three quarters, the industry contracted by 4.70 percent compared with +20 percent during the same period last year.
All the constituents of the industry have contributed positively, e.g., mining and quarrying 8.90 percent growth, large-scale manufacturing 0.41 percent growth, construction 3.52 percent growth except the electricity, gas and water supply industry, which has posted a negative growth of 33.19 percent due to lower subsidies, a high deflator, as well as a very high base effect of 123.03 percent.
The construction industry also contributed positively by 3.52 percent due to higher cement production 1.9 percent and higher spending on infrastructure in the public sector.
The overall growth in services is 3.62 percent during Q4 with all the constituents contributing positively, i.e., wholesale and retail trade 0.75 percent, transportation and storage 3.25 percent, information and communication 15.03 percent, finance and insurance activities 2.20 percent, public administration and social security 5.46 percent, education 3.97 percent, health and social work 6.14 percent and other private services 4.0 percent.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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