India rupee posts weekly fall despite rate hike amid adverse flows, weak sentiment

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee ended flat on Friday but declined in a week in which the Reserve Bank of India delivered its first rate hike in nearly four years that did little to help the Asian currency bogged down by adverse hedging and investment flows.

The Indian rupee closed at 96.73 per dollar, barely changed from its previous close, staying within striking distance of its all-time low of 96.96 hit in May.

State-run banks’ dollar sales, most likely on behalf of the RBI, helped limit the fall, traders said.

Frequent interventions by the central bank have limited rupee weakness amid elevated hedging by importers and persistent foreign portfolio outflows from stocks.

Still, sentiment on the rupee remains bearish, with analysts polled by Reuters expecting the currency to languish near record lows over the next three to six months.

“We see USD/INR directionally moving gradually higher over time as our modal forecast, but the topside will be capped by RBI given the meaningful FX reserves,” MUFG said in a note, forecasting the rupee at 97.50 by September 2027.

A key options market gauge, the 1-month 25 delta risk reversal, signals that demand for options that wager on a weaker rupee has outpaced appetite for bets on a rally, even though near-tenor volatility expectations are contained.

All this means the rupee has not benefited much from a slight improvement in the global picture as oil prices and the dollar are off recent highs.

India’s foreign exchange reserves fell for a fourth consecutive week to $734.6 billion as of October 2, down about $50 billion from their record high hit in September.