Indian rupee ends flat as RBI intervention, portfolio flows blunt Fed hike impact

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee ended flat on Thursday, bucking declines in most regional peers, as likely central bank intervention and inflows related to an equity index rebalancing helped cushion the impact from a US interest rate hike.

The Indian rupee closed at 95.93 against the dollar, barely changed from Wednesday’s close at 95.9550.

While the rupee had slipped past the 96-per-dollar mark in early trading, it recouped losses following market intervention and inflows likely linked to the rebalancing of a global equity index.

“Price action signals that the central bank is not comfortable with the rupee falling past 96, so that could remain a key support level in the near term,” an FX salesperson at a foreign bank said.

Asian currencies mostly declined between 0.1% and 0.6% after the Federal Reserve raised rates and reaffirmed its commitment to curbing inflation, lifting short-dated U.S. yields to their highest level in over two years.

The dollar index was anchored above the 100 mark, after rising nearly 0.7% in the previous session.

“The dollar can count on a stronger floor after the Fed raised rates and signalled another hike is likely by year-end,” ING said in a note.

“As long as oil remains supported, it’s hard to argue against the bullish USD momentum,” ING added.

Brent crude was down about 1% at $104.8 as reports of additional Saudi crude cargoes through Oman eased supply concerns, even as worries over the Middle East conflict lingered.

Meanwhile, traders said that the Reserve Bank of India also likely conducted dollar-rupee sell/buy swaps to drain excess rupee liquidity from the banking system. The central bank’s open market debt sale, conducted for the same purpose, also absorbed cash from the banking system equivalent to nearly 0.2% of total deposits on Thursday.