Indian rupee to rally on oil slide below pre-Iran war levels, bucks Asia weakness

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to climb at the open on Thursday, aided by a continued drop in oil prices ​below pre-Iran war levels, while Asian peers were under pressure from ‌safe-haven dollar demand.

The Indian rupee is expected to open in the 94.25-94.30 range, per traders, having settled at 94.6650 on Wednesday.

The currency had been at risk of slipping ​past the 95 mark in the previous session before reversing course, supported by ​likely central bank intervention, while comments from Reserve Bank of India ⁠chief Sanjay Malhotra pulled forward premium levels lower.

In Wednesday’s session, the rupee had brushed ​aside the pressure seen across Asian peers, which were weighed down by expectations of ​higher U.S. interest rates.

That trend is likely to persist in Thursday’s session, traders said, with most regional currencies extending losses, while the dollar index holds near multi-month highs.

Wednesday’s price action ​has compounded the impact of a further slide in oil prices, ​a currency trader at a bank said.

The impact of the RBI intervention and lower oil prices ‌are ⁠driving a decent uptick in the rupee at the open, he added.

Brent crude fell more than 4% on Wednesday and dropped another 2% in Asian trading to $72.28, amid stranded tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz following an ​initial accord to end ​the U.S.-Israel ⁠conflict with Iran.

Brent has now slipped below levels seen before the conflict broke out on February 28. It is down more ​than 10% this week and over 21% for the ​month.

Price action ⁠suggests the market is pricing in a swift normalisation of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, ING said in a note.

Meanwhile, the dollar index was ⁠holding ​near 101.50, hovering near its highest level in ​over a year, on bets that a resilient U.S. economy and high inflation will prompt ​the Federal Reserve to raise rates.