Indian rupee braces for weaker start after Iran–US tensions ignite fresh oil rally

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is poised to kick off Thursday on a weaker note after a long-standing pressure point returns to the fore, with oil prices climbing after Iran and the United States traded strikes.

The rupee is expected to open in the 95.35-95.40 per dollar range, traders said, having settled at 95.2650 on Wednesday.

The currency climbed to a high of 95.10 on Wednesday, aided by what traders said was dollar selling by state-run banks, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India.

It appears that after taking several steps to support the currency, the RBI is now reinforcing its intent to prevent any further weakness in the rupee, a currency trader at a bank said.

However, for that support to prove meaningful and sustained, it would need backing from other factors, particularly a moderation in oil prices, he added.

Brent crude surged to a high of $95.50 after the United States launched fresh strikes on multiple targets in Iran overnight, sharply escalating tensions in the region.

In response, Iran said it would shut the Strait of Hormuz and announced counter-attacks on 18 US military targets in Kuwait and Bahrain.

That marks a shift from recent weeks when it has facilitated the transit of a small number of ships from friendly countries through the strait.

The latest developments “suggest a deal is still some way off and that energy flows from the Persian Gulf will remain heavily constrained,” analysts at ING Bank said in a note.

Apart from oil prices, the rupee will have to contend with a tepid risk environment, following a further selloff in US equities.

Meanwhile, while US headline inflation rose to 4.2% year-on-year, the highest level in more than three years, the core measure increased less than expected, leaving near-term Federal Reserve rate expectations largely unchanged.