Indian rupee may see relief on tentative signs of risk recovery; oil remains a worry

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee may see modest relief at open on Thursday on the back of a pullback in the dollar and ​tentative signs of recovery in risk sentiment, though concerns over ‌the impact of the Middle East war on oil prices remain a headwind.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 92.10 to 92.12 range versus ​the U.S. dollar, having settled 0.74% weaker at 92.15 on Wednesday. ​

The currency hit an all-time low of 92.3025 during the session, ⁠pressured by the rally in oil.

Bankers said the rupee will remain ​sensitive to crude oil moves, while market participants will be alert to potential ​intervention by the Reserve Bank of India after the currency dropped 1.3% over the last two days.

“Right now the rupee is being driven almost entirely by oil. As long ​as the (Mideast) conflict continues to keep crude prices choppy, the pressure will ​likely persist,” a currency trader at a private bank said.

Brent crude climbed nearly 3% ‌in ⁠Asian trading to just below $84 a barrel, not far from the peak of $85.12 it hit after the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war. Concerns about a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have underpinned prices, with Brent now ​up more than ​15% this week.

The U.S.–Iran war widened on Wednesday after a U.S. strike hit an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, U.S. Senate Republicans ​backed President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran.

Dollar stumbles, equities recover

Amid ⁠the focus on the war’s impact on oil prices, risk sentiment showed tentative signs of recovery, though traders cautioned that it may not be durable.

U.S. equities ⁠recovered ​on Wednesday, with Asian markets following through, ​led by South Korea and Japan.

The dollar index slipped below the 99 mark, weighed down ​by the improvement in risk appetite.