Indian rupee mired in narrow range; RBI defence blunts outflow-led pressure near 91

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to remain confined to a narrow range on Wednesday, with the central bank’s absorption of sizeable dollar outflows in the previous session reinforcing its defence of the 91 level.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open largely flat versus the U.S. dollar, having settled at 90.95 on Tuesday.

The currency held a narrow 5 paisa range on Tuesday despite weakness in Asian peers, a plunge in domestic equities and sizeable dollar outflows, underscoring the scale of the RBI’s supply at the 91-per-dollar level.

Bankers said the rupee would likely have depreciated materially beyond 91 had the central bank not absorbed persistent dollar demand.

“If the outflow pressure continues at this pace, the market will keep gravitating toward 91, making it increasingly difficult to hold the level,” a Mumbai-based currency trader said.

Repeated tests of the same level tend to weaken it over time, he pointed out, especially considering the current flow backdrop.

Asia recovers

Asian currencies and shares rose, recovering from Tuesday’s losses. Investors are weighing the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision blocking President Donald Trump’s tariffs imposed using emergency powers, while eyeing his speech for signals on trade policy.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies remains a key variable for the outlook on Asian currencies.

With the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against the use of the emergency powers for reciprocal tariffs, attention has shifted toward Section 232 (national security) and Section 301 (unfair trade practices) for sustaining tariff pressure, MUFG Bank said in a note.

Meanwhile, comments from Federal Reserve policymakers leaned towards hawkish, Morgan Stanley said. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stressed that the central bank should prioritise getting inflation back toward target before cutting rates.