Pakistan set to meet almost all IMF QPCs ahead of February review: Topline

Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all seven Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs) set under its ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, strengthening its position ahead of the Fund’s upcoming review later this month.

“As per our calculation, Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all 7 QPCs; however, data for one indicator is not known yet, which was missed in the last review (floor on targeted cash transfer) by Rs1 billion only,” said Topline Securities in its report on Tuesday.

The IMF team is expected to visit Pakistan in the last week of February for the third review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and second review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The review will assess the performance of the assigned criteria and targets for September 2025 and December 2025.

“QPC for any IMF program is an important criterion as it requires board-level waiver if not met,” said Topline.

Based on the brokerage house’s estimates, Pakistan is likely to meet the IMF’s QPC, including targets related to net international reserves and swap positions.

“The Net International Reserves (NIR) is likely to remain below ~- $6.7 billion (benchmark floor -$7 billion) for September 2025 and below -$6 billion for December 2025 (benchmark -$6.5 billion).

“The Net Domestic Asset (NDA) of SBP [State Bank of Pakistan] are likely to remain in the range of Rs12.5-13.5 trillion versus the ceiling target of Rs14.9-15.1 trillion for September and December 2025,” it said.

Moreover, Foreign Currency Swaps, as per SBP for Sep/Dec 2025, are $2.2 billion/$1.86 billion, compared to the ceiling target of $2.25 billion/$2 billion.

“Primary surplus numbers for Sep/Dec 2025 are Rs3.5 trillion/Rs4.1 trillion compared to the ceiling target of Rs460 billion and Rs3.2 trillion.

“The government guarantees and floor on cash transfer spending are also likely to be met as per our channel checks. Similarly, the new tax return target is also expected to be achieved,” said Topline.

On FBR tax revenue, the brokerage house said that the FBR tax collection target was missed by Rs336 billion. “We believe a portion of this missed target could be collected through verdict pertaining to Super Tax; however, the collection in our view will remain below the annual target,” it said.