Immigration helped Trump win the White House - now tactics could hurt Republicans in midterms

President Donald Trump’s hardline immigration agenda, a key force behind his return to the White House in 2024, is increasingly showing signs of becoming a liability, threatening Republican prospects in the November midterm elections.

What was once his most potent campaign issue is now driving unease among voters unsettled by the administration’s aggressive tactics in its immigration crackdown, including the targeting of US citizens and violent measures against peaceful protesters.

Illegal immigration and inflation were the twin issues that helped Trump win the election. Now, opinion polls show a growing number of Americans, including key independent voters, are unhappy with Trump’s handling of both, putting Republicans on the defensive ahead of the midterms.

The polling shows most Republicans still back Trump’s push for mass deportations, but a sizeable minority are uneasy with a heavy-handed approach by federal immigration agents, which led to the shooting deaths of a mother of three and a nurse in Minneapolis this month.

Just 39% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, the lowest since his inauguration, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Monday. While 84% of Republican respondents said they support Trump on the issue, a fifth of them said federal agents had gone “too far” in their crackdown.

If those sentiments persist, they could spell trouble for Republicans in November, when Democrats are aiming to take control of Congress and block the president’s agenda.

“This was one of the president’s number one advantages and it has become a political liability for him,” said John Feehery, a Republican strategist. “The base is still pretty comfortable with what Trump is doing. But it’s not just about the base, it’s about swing voters.”

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson defended the administration’s approach to immigration.

“President Trump wants all Americans to feel safe in their communities. That guiding principle is why the President has promised to remove dangerous criminal illegal aliens from our country, urged local Democrat leaders to work with federal law enforcement, and called for a fact-based investigation into the tragic death of Mr. Pretti,” she said in a statement.

Dubbed Operation Metro Surge, the December deployment of nearly 3,000 federal immigration agents to Minneapolis and St. Paul provoked a national uproar with the fatal shootings of Renee Good on January 7 and then Alex Pretti on January 24. Both were killed during confrontations with immigration agents at protests.

Trump has taken steps in recent days to ease tensions in Minneapolis, dispatching his border czar to oversee the operation and signaling a willingness to work with state officials.

It remains unclear whether these moves reflect a recognition of the political risks to Republicans in November midterms, or are simply an effort to regain control of an operation that has produced daily images of masked federal agents responding aggressively to protesters confronting them in the streets.

Trump spent the weekend huddling with senior advisers about how to recalibrate his immigration strategy, according to a White House official and a source familiar with the talks. The discussions included a possible reduction of agents deployed to Minnesota and narrowing the focus there to deportations rather than broad enforcement operations, the sources said.