NEW YORK: Oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday as the market weighed expectations of ample global supply this year against uncertainty around Venezuelan crude supplies after the US capture of Nicolas Maduro, the South American country’s leader.
Brent crude futures were down 25 cents, or 0.4percent, to USD61.51 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EST (1654 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 32 cents, or 0.6 percent, to USD58 a barrel. “It is premature to evaluate the impact of Nicolas Maduro’s capture on the oil balance. What seems obvious, nonetheless, is that oil supply will be sufficient in 2026, with or without an increase in production from the OPEC member,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil.
Market participants polled by Reuters in December said they expected oil prices to be under pressure in 2026 because of rising supply and weak demand. Furthermore, US crude and product stockpiles were expected to have risen last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. The American Petroleum Institute will publish its weekly US inventory estimates after 4:30 p.m.
EST on Tuesday, followed by official US government statistics due at 10:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday. “As the evolving global oil surplus becomes more transparent, the stage for a renewed downturn by next week will be set,” oil trading advisor Ritterbusch and Associates said.
Price pressure could be exacerbated by the US capture of Maduro on Saturday and its potential to hasten an end to a US embargo on Venezuelan oil, leading to higher output.
Market participants were also debating the future trajectory of Venezuelan supply after US President Donald Trump claimed US oil companies were ready to invest in the South American country to boost its production and exports.
Venezuela’s oil sector has long been in decline, due in part to underinvestment and US sanctions. Oil production from the country averaged 1.1 million barrels per day last year. “We estimate only 300,000 barrels per day of additional supply within the next two to three years on limited incremental spending,” said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
“Some of this can be financed organically by (state-run oil company) PDVSA but international capital would need to be committed to make 3 million bpd by 2040 possible,” Shah said.
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