‘Unrealistic’ data? Govt says economy grew 3.71% but critics cry foul

Government critics, including members of the opposition and economists, questioned the credibility of official economic growth figures after the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported a 3.71% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of FY2025-26, largely driven by a significant rise in industrial output.

Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal on Wednesday shared the figures on social media, highlighting a 9.38% growth in the industrial sector.

“It should not be ignored that this growth is coming despite the 2025 flood shock and absorption of all fiscal tightening, energy subsidy withdrawal, and food inflation,” Ahsan Iqbal said.

According to PBS data, released later in the night, the economy posted a growth of 3.71% during Q1 of FY2025-26. The growth in agriculture, industry and services stood at 2.89%, 9.38% and 2.35%, respectively.

However, the figures drew sharp criticism from economists and opposition voices, who termed the data unrealistic and inconsistent with ground realities.

Former Sindh governor Mohammad Zubair questioned how economic growth could accelerate amid what he described as historically low investment levels.

“How can GDP start to grow in an economy with the lowest Investment ratio?” he wrote on X.

“Like the last quarter of last fiscal year, where growth was shown as 6.17%, these are totally fudged numbers. No one is going to believe,” he added.

Economist Muzzammil Aslam, who also serves as an advisor on finance to the Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, also expressed scepticism, pointing to sectoral inconsistencies within the data.

Aslam questioned how construction activity could grow by 21% despite weak cement and steel sales, and how electricity, gas and water supply posted a 25% when power generation from LNG, furnace oil and imported coal plants remained constrained due to merit order issues.

“This can only happen in Pakistan, where construction grows faster than cement and steel sales, slaughtering grows faster than livestock growth and gas and electricity production rose more than exploration, and when all LNG, furnace oil and imported coal plants are shut due to non-qualification of merit order,” he said.

Similarly, political commentator Sabee Kazmi dismissed the figures as “absolutely fake,” citing record-low investment, high unemployment, elevated inflation and a rising cost of living.

“You can’t fool Pakistanis anymore. Not happening,” he said.

Kazmi argued that official statistics failed to reflect economic distress faced by households.