India bonds fall as quarter-end supply bites; 10-year yield threatens fresh highs

MUMBAI: Indian government bonds fell at the start of a holiday-shortened week as market participants wearied of constant supply, the latest one being from states looking to borrow a larger-than-expected amount via sale of debt.

The benchmark 10-year yield was at 6.6370% as of 9:50 a.m. IST, after ending at 6.6017% on Friday.

Bond yields rise when prices fall.

Indian states aim to borrow 332.20 billion rupees ($3.71 billion) through the sale of bonds on Tuesday, which is nearly 25% higher than the scheduled amount of 268.55 billion rupees.

States have raised around 1.8 trillion rupees so far this quarter via debt sale, and traders anticipate another heavy calendar in the next week.

“Supply calendar is already packed, and we are yet to see the worst quarter of the year, so near-term trajectory for yields is up only,” trader with a primary dealership said.

On Friday, bonds witnessed a sell-off after weaker-than-expected demand for the auction of the five-year bond, as investors remained cautious about building long positions ahead of the quarter-end, and the year-end for foreign players.

Pressure on bonds is likely to continue as foreign investors remain on the selling side, with net exits for the month at 109 billion rupees.

Sentiment was one of caution, even as the Reserve Bank of India bought bonds worth 1 trillion rupees and infused 450 billion rupees via a foreign exchange swap in December.

Meanwhile, India’s interest-rate panel has indicated that a potential moderation in growth next year, alongside subdued inflation, could open space for more rate cuts, minutes of the December meeting released on Friday showed.