CHICAGO: Chicago soybean futures fell to six-week lows on Friday as worries about slowing export demand for US supplies and the looming harvest of a large Brazilian crop spurred a round of long liquidation, analysts said.
Corn and wheat futures followed the weak tone, pressured by rising global grain supplies. Chicago Board of Trade January soybeans settled down 16-3/4 cents at USD10.76-3/4 a bushel after dipping to USD10.75-3/4, the contract’s lowest since October 30.
CBOT March corn ended down 5-3/4 cents at USD4.40-3/4 a bushel and March wheat finished down 4-1/4 cents at USD5.29-1/4 per bushel. Soybeans posted the biggest percentage declines as traders worried that the window for US soybean exports was closing, with Brazilian farmers set to start harvesting a bumper crop in just a few weeks. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed sales of 132,000 tons of US soybeans to China on Friday, the latest in a series of bookings since late October.
US officials have said top global buyer China would purchase 12 million tons of the oilseed following a trade truce in late October. But analysts are concerned that export demand for US soy may soon dry up as South American supplies become available.
“Once China is done, who is there to buy US beans, with the Brazilian discounts and the size of the crop down there?” asked Dan Basse, president of Chicago-based AgResource Co.
Brazilian crop agency Conab on Thursday lowered its forecast of the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop to 177.12 million tons, still a record high, if confirmed. Meanwhile, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that managed commodity funds built a massive net long position in CBOT soybean futures by mid-November, leaving the market prone to bouts of long liquidation.
The CFTC has been slowly releasing backdated commitments-of-traders reports from weeks when the US government was shut down. Corn futures fell on technical selling. The benchmark CBOT contract was unable all week to break through overhead resistance at the USD4.50 mark, anchored by ample global grain supplies.
A huge wheat harvest in Argentina threatens to compete with corn as a feed grain. The Rosario Grains Exchange raised its estimate of Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest to a record 27.7 million metric tons, from 24.5 million previously.
“Argentina is offering low-protein wheat under USD200 a ton. They are pushing that wheat everywhere they can; it is competing with corn,” Basse said.
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