The old saying goes, if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and looks like a duck, then it most definitely is a duck. Month after month, the grid electricity generation data shows the duck’s belly is getting deeper, yet the urgency needed on the policy front is nowhere to be seen. Pakistan's solar story is mostly behind-the-meter and off-grid, but ignore net-metering at your own peril.
A week ago, news headlines quoted the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) CEO saying, “Solar generation is increasing, but this does not have a significant impact on the grid.” One hopes the CEO responsible for all power purchases for the grid was misquoted or taken out of context, because the pace at which the rise of solar generation has interrupted the grid dynamics – is one of the fastest in the world, and is being quoted as a case study around the world. If these pictures do not show “significant impact”, nothing else will.
The load profile on the grid has altered a great deal. So much so, that it is almost unrecognizable from two years ago. It is naïve to suggest this does not change the way the grid economics work.
The peaks are getting higher, reflective of a confluence of factors from organic growth, return of industrial captive consumers, and a relative ease in tariffs. The daytime dynamics suggest the solar capacity to have reached significantly more than what it is being discussed in relevant circles.
Net-metered capacity alone is expected to have crossed 6,000 MW. There is four or five times more that goes behind the grid and off-grid. Inaction comes at a cost. And it could be dear as the technical constraints that arise from the steep daytime dip have the potential to cripple the grid. This is not an overstatement. The policy response needs to be proportionate, which so far, has not been the case.
Net metering is just one piece of the puzzle, and the reform is a must. Elongating payback periods by reducing buyback rates and reducing allowed generation capacity to load profiles must already be done with.
The real threats of over generation, reverse power flow, steep ramp up requirements are all very valid concerns – that will sooner or later, pose a massive challenge. Solar is here to stay and grow. The transmission and pricing sides have to align with the ground realities. The generation planning cannot forever overlook the solar revolution. Consider that the central generation planning document envisages no more than 8,000 MW in terms of net-metered capacity by 2035. That number is likely to be surpassed by mid of 2026 alone.
Underestimating solar capacity means the investment required to keep the transmission side in sync with generation also suffers. While the IGCEP 2025-35 talks about storage to maintain the system’s frequency and ensure smooth ramping – it definitely needs another look. Because the sun ain’t waiting.
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