KARACHI: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to hold its board meeting by December 2025 to approve the release of the next USD 1.2 billion tranche to Pakistan.
According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmed, the country has successfully met all performance criteria required for the IMF review, paving the way for the disbursement under the ongoing IMF program.
According to Topline Securities, Governor SBP revealed this in the analyst briefing held after the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Monday. During the briefing, it was informed that out of the net repayable number of USD 10 billion for FY26, an amount of USD 3.1 billion is already paid. As per SBP governor, all criteria were met for the IMF review and the board meeting of IMF is expected to be scheduled by Dec 2025 wherein Pakistan will receive USD1.2billion payment.
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SBP also expects the current account deficit to remain in the earlier range of 0-1 percent of GDP. However, the outlook on the remittances front has improved and SBP expects over USD 41 billion of remittances during FY26 compared to USD 38 billion in preceding year.
In addition, commenting on FX Intervention, it was revealed that SBP has purchased over USD 20 billion in the last 3 years and buying is continuing after meeting the requirement of repayments/ repatriation.
According to Insight Research, the governor SBP also highlighted that year end target for FX reserves has been revised upward to USD 17.8 billion compared to earlier estimate of USD 17.5 billion. Commenting on debt repayments, Jameel Ahmed highlighted that the central bank will continue to honour the external debt obligations in a timely manner.
It also mentioned that the difference between the import figures reported by the SBP and PBS arises from the use of different primary data sources by the two institutions and is expected to gradually normalize over time.
Volumetric increase in imports is already absorbed by the import bill and SBP sees no difficulty at current import levels. However, any untoward change in oil prices may pose some concerns on the import front.
It may be mentioned here that, in line with market expectations, MPC has kept the policy rate unchanged at 11 percent in its meeting on Monday and the committee observed that despite improvement in macro framework, uncertain global prices, trade tensions and domestic supply chain challenges can impact the macroeconomic outlook. Therefore, MPC maintained the policy rate at current level to maintain overall price stability.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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