LONDON: OPEC+ oil-producing countries opted for only a modest rise to November output due to concerns about a potential global glut, sources within the group said, as non-OPEC supply also rises while fuel demand growth slows.
On Sunday, the group earmarked an extra 137,000 barrels per day for November, continuing monthly output boosts begun in April.
That was the smallest of the options the group discussed, three OPEC+ sources said, citing concerns about a looming oversupply.
OPEC declined to comment. The Saudi Arabian government office did not respond to a request for comment.
“OPEC+ stepped carefully after seeing how nervous the market had become,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official.
Benchmark Brent oil prices fell 8 percent to below USD65 per barrel last week after several media outlets, including Reuters, reported that OPEC+ was considering bigger increases.
Brent has traded at USD60-USD70 since OPEC+ began its output rises in April, down from USD82 per barrel at the start of 2025.
The oil market’s monthly futures structure also shifted last week, indicating possible oversupply, which could have been another factor which influenced OPEC+ decision-making, Leon said.
Brent’s prompt price premium over six-month futures fell to 39 cents, the smallest since May. Premiums usually weaken when supply exceeds demand.
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The group says its market strategy is driven by fundamental supply and demand factors, not oil price targets.
Yet it appears de facto OPEC+ leader Saudi Arabia is prioritising regaining market share from rival producers, according to sources familiar with OPEC+ negotiations.
The OPEC+ planned output increases since April including November stand at more than 2.7 million barrels per day, or 2.5 percent of global demand, though the group has struggled to achieve them fully.
OPEC+ has so far reached about 75 percent of their aim as most producers have already reached capacity, data showed and analysts said. Stockpiling by China and summer fuel demand have absorbed a lot of the additional supply.
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