Political jolts, US government shutdown casts cloud over markets

SINGAPORE: Political upheaval in Japan and France gripped currency and bond markets for a second day running on Tuesday, while global shares stuttered despite a multi-billion dollar chip-supply deal between AMD and OpenAI.

The weekend election of fiscal and monetary dove Sanae Takaichi as leader of the ruling party in Japan propelled the Nikkei to yet another record high early in the session, as her likely appointment as the country’s next premier stoked bets on a revival in big spending and loose monetary policy.

The yen meanwhile struggled on the weaker side of the 150 per dollar level and sank to a two-month low, while Japanese government bonds slid, pushing yields higher.

An auction of 30-year Japanese debt later on Tuesday will offer an early test of investor tolerance for Takaichi’s expected expansionist policies.

“Investors appear to be pricing in Takaichi’s embrace of Abenomics into their expectations for her leadership,” said Amova Asset Management’s chief global strategist Naomi Fink, referring to the economic approach of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

“With term premiums already rising, particularly at the long end of the yield curve, investors may push back against any perception of excessive fiscal largesse.”

In France, the shock resignation of Sebastien Lecornu as prime minister threw the nation deeper into political crisis and unnerved markets.

French OAT futures fell slightly in the early Asian session after bonds tumbled on Monday, while the euro came under pressure and dipped 0.06% to $1.1706.

“(President Emmanuel) Macron could try to put together a new cabinet for the National Assembly’s approval. But in the interim, Macron is likely to come under a lot of pressure to dissolve the National Assembly and move toward completely new legislative elections,” said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures were up 0.05%, while FTSE futures eased 0.15%.

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The political jolts across major economies, made no better by a U.S. government shutdown, gave investors little to cheer about, with the overall mood sombre, overshadowing enthusiasm about artificial intelligence.

AMD will supply AI chips to OpenAI in a multi-year deal that would bring AMD tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue and give the ChatGPT creator the option to buy up to roughly 10% of the chipmaker.

Politics jolts markets as Japan stocks soar 4%, bitcoin leaps to record high with gold

Still, Nasdaq futures were down 0.18% in Asia and S&P 500 futures eased 0.16%, failing to extend a run from their record closing highs on Monday.

Markets in Hong Kong and China were closed for a holiday.

The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan swung between gain and loss to last trade flat.

In currencies, the US dollar was on the front foot, helped in part by weakness in the yen and euro. Sterling was down 0.08% to $1.3475.

The Aussie fell 0.13% to $0.6609.

“A buoyant USD despite the U.S. shutdown has probably wrong-footed some and intrigued many insofar as it flies in the face of received wisdom that the USD weakens into shutdowns,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho.

“Recent evidence from comparable shutdowns in December 2018 and October 2013 suggest that USD declines were considerably reversed within two weeks out of the shutdown. And so, the case to go big on bearish USD bets is less compelling.”

Elsewhere, oil prices steadied on Tuesday, with Brent crude futures up 0.11% to $65.54 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 0.06% to $61.73.

Spot gold rose to an all-time high of $3,977.19 an ounce, while bitcoin similarly hovered near a record peak, as investors turned to alternative assets as a store of value.