Guddu Barrage likely to experience very high flood levels between Sept 6 and 7

KARACHI: Floodwaters racing down from Punjab have placed Sindh on high alert, with the Indus River at Guddu forecast to rise to very high flood levels between September 6 and 7, according to fresh warnings issued Monday.

Reservoir levels already stand near maximum capacity, with Tarbela at 1,550 feet— 100 percent of its live storage— and Mangla at 1,225.75 feet, holding 82.8 percent of capacity. The weekly forecast from September 2 to 8 warns of widespread heavy to very heavy rains across upper catchments.

The Flood Forecasting Division Lahore reported widespread thundershowers over the upper catchments of the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej. The Indus basin is also expected to see isolated showers upstream and scattered rainfall across Rawalpindi.

In Karachi, the Meteorological Department confirmed that low-level flooding will persist at Guddu, Sukkur and Kotri barrages but cautioned that the Indus at Guddu and Sukkur may swell to very high flood levels by September 6 and 7.

The Jhelum may receive isolated showers both upstream and downstream, while widespread rainfall is expected in the Chenab basin, particularly over Gujranwala. Lahore is braced for heavy showers along the Ravi, while the Sutlej is forecast to see widespread upstream rains and isolated downpours in Bahawalpur.

Fresh river readings show rising water levels. At Guddu, flows stood at 318,200 cusecs, with forecasts of 290,000–320,000 cusecs over the next 24 hours. Sukkur, with 285,500 cusecs, is expected to dip slightly to 260,000–280,000 cusecs, while Kotri carried 273,800 cusecs and may edge up to 275,000–295,000 cusecs.

The Chenab at Trimmu has surged to 479,700 cusecs, with forecasts of 600,000 cusecs, placing it in the exceptionally high flood category. The Sutlej at Ganda Singh Wala is bracing for 250,000–270,000 cusecs, with water rising relentlessly.

Torrential downpours are expected to lash the upper catchments of the Sutlej, Beas, Ravi and Chenab from September 2 until next Monday, spilling into Lahore and Gujranwala divisions between September 1 and 3. These rains are projected to trigger very high to exceptionally high flows in the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab between September 2 and 4.

Urban flooding is feared in Lahore, Gujranwala and Gujrat within the next 72 hours. Exceptionally high floods are forecast to persist in the Sutlej at Ganda Singh Wala, while the Chenab at Panjnad is expected to rise to very high to exceptionally high levels on September 4 and 5. The Indus at Guddu will likely follow with similar dangers on September 6 and 7.

The Provincial Disaster Management Authority Sindh issued a separate alert, stressing that river flows depend on releases from Indian reservoirs and could intensify further. It also warned that associated nullahs may overflow, worsening the situation.

District administrations have been instructed to act swiftly, enforce precautionary measures and maintain round-the-clock vigilance. The PDMA said forecasts are being updated daily and require constant monitoring.

At 11:30 hours on Monday, river flows stood at 318,200 cusecs at Guddu against its design capacity of 1.2 million cusecs, 285,500 cusecs at Sukkur against 900,000 cusecs, and 273,800 cusecs at Kotri against 875,000 cusecs. All three barrages are currently at low flood levels.

For Karachi, a humid three-day spell is expected. The forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies with drizzle on September 1, partly cloudy and humid conditions with drizzle on September 2, and partly cloudy weather on September 3.

The city’s maximum temperature will remain between 31 and 33 degrees Celsius and the minimum between 26 and 28 degrees. Morning humidity is forecast at 70 to 80 percent, falling to 60 to 70 percent in the evening, with west to south-westerly winds keeping conditions damp and uncomfortable.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025