Flood and fury: relentless climate cycle

The late monsoon, coinciding with glacier meltwater, is wreaking havoc in a region already known as one of the most climate-vulnerable in the world—and the predictions are proving true. Pakistan’s carbon emissions are relatively very low, limiting its mitigation capacity; however, the urgent need to adapt and build resilience cannot be ignored.

Time is running out as losses mount. Much like a macroeconomic boom-bust cycle, the country is trapped in a relentless loop of climate-related disasters, with their frequency steadily increasing. Yet, we have not broken free.

The key lies in adapting to—and respecting—the Mother Nature. Unfortunately, authorities often do the opposite. A major issue is the real estate mafia, which seizes wetlands and vacant land to develop housing schemes without proper flood safety measures.

Examples abound in Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad, where developers—often politicians, industrialists, or even more powerful groups—have built on vulnerable lands along the Ravi River, Karachi’s freshwater lakes, or Islamabad’s Swan River. Similar stories echo across smaller cities and rural areas.

From Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to Karachi, the entire country feels the impact. Deforestation has worsened the effects of cloudbursts in mountainous regions, while haphazard, unplanned concrete structures have encroached upon natural watercourses without providing storage or drainage systems.

Regulatory bodies are either absent or complicit. The lack of cohesive town planning and shortage of experts in critical roles is glaring. While numerous technocrats populate finance and energy ministries, urban planning remains neglected. The first step must be appointing qualified experts with both independence and authority.

Some developments need to be undone to restore open spaces for water to occupy during heavy rains and floods. At the same time, robust systems for early warning, evacuation, and relief camps must be established. District-level capacity building is essential, particularly in rural areas where losses are greatest. Provincial and federal coordination should be swift, potentially under the Council of Common Interests (CCI), supported by a comprehensive national policy.

We must move beyond optics, which are becoming counterproductive. Whenever floods strike, political leaders indulge in photo-ops—standing in chest-high water, donning long boots, or patrolling by boat and helicopter. Real success will be measured by timely early warnings and evacuations. Only then should chief ministers or other officials visit relief camps to show solidarity—after investing in systems that truly safeguard lives and well-being.

Media coverage must also shift focus. Reporting is often limited to big cities and constituencies of influential politicians, especially near the Ravi River in Punjab. Yet, the larger crises unfold along the Chenab and Sutlej rivers. While floodwaters eventually flow through upper and central Punjab toward the sea, they stagnate in Southern Punjab and Sindh, both lying close to sea level.

In these areas, water may pool, forcing diversions into agricultural lands, as witnessed during the 2022 floods—devastating crops and livestock. Rural populations face evacuation into poorly designed camps, where waterborne diseases only deepen their misery.

Estimating economic losses and food inflation at this stage is difficult. But the focus must remain on prevention. The government needs to adapt to this changing reality.

Since the 2010 floods, there has been repeated urgency around building climate-resilient infrastructure, with frequent funding requests. Yet floods persist, while substantive progress remains elusive. Too often, the chase for funds eclipses meaningful development.

We must rethink development—not just concrete buildings and roads, but infrastructure built to withstand climate change. Development budgets lie largely with the provinces, but what have successive PML-N and PPP governments in Punjab and Sindh, respectively, delivered? Like national defence, climate resilience is also a federal responsibility. Pakistan needs a powerful Climate Change Authority, with accountability over both spending and implementation.

In this relentless cycle of flood and fury, Pakistan stands at a crossroads: choose spectacle or substance. As the saying goes, “We can’t direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails.” Adaptation is no longer a choice—it is survival.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025