The youth bulge and idle youth

The Population and Housing Census of 2023 provides very useful information on the living conditions of the over 241 million people of Pakistan.

The objective of this article is to focus on the size of the youth population, aged 15 to 24 years, and determine if there continues to be a youth bulge. This is followed by an approach to and the resulting quantification of the number of idle youth in the country.

The above analyses are conducted both at the national and the provincial levels from the estimates provided for each province by the Census. There is need to recognize the outstanding quality of the Census, which was the first-ever digital census. It has given estimates right down to the tehsil/taluka level throughout Pakistan.

Prior to presentation of the findings of the 2023 Population Census, estimates are given for earlier years for Pakistan by the International Labor Organization (ILO), highlighted in the World Development Indicators (WDI) data base of the World Bank. Also, a comparison is made with the position of youth in other South Asian countries.

According to the WDI, there is evidence of the peaking of the youth bulge in Pakistan. The share in population of youth, aged 15 to 24 years, was 19.2 percent in 1980. This share had increased to 19.4 percent by 2000. The share reached a peak in 2010 at 20.9 percent and has since declined to 20.0 percent by 2023.

The trend is in line with that revealed by the Population Censuses of 1998, 2017 and 2023. The share of youth was estimated at 15.1 percent in 1998. This share increased to 19.1 percent by 2017. However, the increase in the youth bulge appears to have peaked and has come down somewhat to 18.5 percent in 2023. The annual growth rate of youth population between 2017 and 2023 has been estimated at 1.3 percent, as compared to the overall population growth rate of 2.5 percent.

The fall in the share of youth population should auger well for their productive absorption, either in the process of acquiring higher education or engaging in productive work.

However, this hinges on the rate of development of the higher education system in the country and a high enough growth rate of the economy to absorb new entrants into the labour force. Between the two Censuses of 2017 and 2023, the average annual GDP growth rate has been only 2.6 percent. Consequently, the number of unemployed workers has increased rapidly.

The number of idle youth who are neither undergoing education or engaged in productive work is a very sensitive indicator of socio-economic conditions in a country. Idle youth face several risks, including increased vulnerability to crime and even terrorism, substance abuse and mental health issues. It can also lead to widespread unrest.

The WDI data base of the World Bank presents estimates made by the ILO of the size of the idle youth population in Pakistan. The latest estimate of the extent to which the youth population is idle is for 2024, at 34 percent. This implies an absolute magnitude of 15.1 million.

Estimates of the number of idle youth for 2015 are 12.4 million, equivalent to 32 percent of the youth population. The implied annual growth rate in the number of idle youth between 2015 and 2024 is 2.2 percent. The growth rate in the number of male idle youth is much higher at 8.3 percent. This adds to the risks associated with behavior of idle youth.

A comparison can also be made from the WDI database of the incidence of idle youth in South Asian countries. As compared to 34 percent in Pakistan, it has been estimated at 18 percent in Sri Lanka, 24 percent in India and 30 percent in Bangladesh. Pakistan clearly has a higher incidence of idle youth.

The 2023 Population Census of Pakistan has estimated the share of youth population, aged 15 to 24 years, at 18.5 percent of the total population. Accordingly, there were 44.7 million youth in the country in 2023.

The estimated youth labour force is reported in the Census at 21.3 million, implying a relatively high labour force participation rate of almost 48 percent. Within the youth labour force, the number of unemployed was 6.2 million. The unemployment rate was very high at over 29 percent.

The enrolment of youth in education is estimated at 14 million. This includes 50 percent of the enrollment in matric and 100 percent at higher levels of education. Therefore, the number of youth who are neither in the labour force nor undergoing education is 9.4 million.

The total number of idle youth is the sum of the unemployed and those who are truly idle by neither being in the labour force nor in the education system. This adds up 15.6 million, equivalent to 35 percent of the youth population. As such, the estimate from the Population Census is very close to the ILO estimate of 34 percent.

An estimation has also been made of the distribution of idle youth by gender. The share of male youth is 25 percent, while that of females is 75 percent. The latter reflects the significantly lower labor force participation of females in Pakistan.

The Population Census of 2023 has also been used to quantify the percent of youth who are idle in each province.

The derived estimates are as follows:

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       Percent (%) of
           Idle Youth

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Punjab 33

Sindh 38

Balochistan 41

Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa 43

Pakistan 35

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The two smaller and less developed provinces both have a relatively higher incidence of idle youth at 41 percent in Baluchistan and 43 percent in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

The high proportion of idle youth in Pakistan highlights all kinds of problems. Among other consequences, it has led to a widespread tendency to migrate and somehow find jobs in other countries. Entry problems have now become more difficult for Pakistanis in a number of countries.

The underutilization of youth is a tragic waste. It partly reflects the limited capacity of higher education institutions in Pakistan to expand their enrollment. Currently, only 29 percent of the public education expenditure is on colleges and universities. The overall level of education spending has declined from 1.9 percent of the GDP in 2012-13 to only 1.5 percent of the GDP in 2022-23. This is in comparison to 1.8 percent of the GDP in Bangladesh, 4.2 percent in India and 2.6 percent in Sri Lanka.

Employment opportunities for youth hinge on the restoration of a higher GDP growth rate to at least 4.5 percent to 5 percent, especially in labour intensive sectors like agriculture, small-scale manufacturing, construction and various services.

The BISP focus should shift toward more funding for education. Further, microfinance and other credit institutions must be funded to create special credit lines for youth, especially in the relatively backward areas of the count

There is a compelling need to recognize the multifarious problems that the youth face in Pakistan. The youth bulge has peaked but the percentage of idle youth has increased. A high priority must be attached to productive absorption of youth if wide-ranging economic and social problems are to be avoided.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025