LONDON: Copper prices rose on Thursday after July trade data in top metals consumer China beat forecasts, with cautious optimism over a potential US-China trade deal offering further support.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange added 0.3% to $9,701 a metric ton in official open-outcry trading. “China’s strong exports data has provided positive sentiment for the industrial metals,” said BNP Paribas analyst David Wilson. China’s exports rose 7.2% year on year in July, beating a forecast 5.4% increase in a Reuters poll. Imports grew 4.1%, defying expectations of a 1% fall.
Its copper imports rose 3.4% from a month earlier while copper concentrate imports climbed 9% as the smelting sector continued to snap up tight concentrate supplies in a record-breaking production run.
The past week’s 1.4% fall in LME copper, prompted by a slump in Comex copper futures after Washington excluded copper metal from its import tariffs on some copper products, also provided room for the growth. The US has accumulated huge amounts of the metal in anticipation of these tariffs. For copper to start moving out of US stocks, the premium on Comex futures over the LME benchmark would need to swing to a discount, BNP Paribas analyst Wilson said.
The French bank expects LME copper to retreat to $8,800 by the end of the third quarter owing to a surplus in the global market. The refined copper market was in a 272,000 tons surplus in the first five months of 2025. The broader markets remain focused on whether Beijing and Washington will reach a durable trade agreement before an August 12 tariff deadline.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he could announce further tariffs on China, similar to the additional 25% duty imposed on imports of Indian goods over its Russian oil purchases.
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