Why such an exodus?

EDITORIAL: Another month, another record. Nearly 60,000 Pakistanis left the country in May to look for work abroad — up 12.7 percent from April — bringing the tally for the first five months of the year to over 285,000. The government, meanwhile, is trumpeting GDP growth, moderating inflation, and a current account surplus. But here’s the problem: if the economic outlook is indeed improving, then why are so many people still packing their bags?

There’s no mystery to this outflow. These aren’t high-flying bankers and Silicon Valley engineers looking for tax arbitrage or better schools. These are skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled workers — many of them trained and subsidised by the state — who no longer believe they can earn a dignified living in their own country. Punjab accounts for over half the out-migration, and the Gulf remains the primary destination. That doesn’t exactly signal confidence in domestic opportunity.

The state is reading this trend as a win. The finance ministry happily links it to the remittance surge — up 28.8 percent year-on-year to US$34.9 billion — and sees the inflow as a stabilising factor for the external account. But there’s no serious attempt to quantify the loss of trained labour, the fiscal leakage from subsidised education, or the impact on productivity, innovation, and institutional memory. Brain drain, even when disguised as economic migration, bleeds a country in ways no remittance can plug.

It’s especially alarming because this exodus is happening against a backdrop of celebrated economic indicators. Inflation has slowed to 3.5 percent, the rupee is stable, and the State Bank has held rates at 11 percent. The current account has flipped into a US$1.8 billion surplus. On paper, it’s a neat macro story. But it only holds if one ignores the micro realities — like the fact that 44 percent of Pakistan’s population still lives below the poverty line. No serious recovery narrative can afford to miss that point.

There’s also something disjointed about the state’s messaging. One day it’s pushing digitalisation, tax reform, climate action, and “job creation.” The next, it’s quietly watching half a million people leave the country every year because they can’t find meaningful work. The poor are still poor, and the struggling middle class is shrinking. If this is the start of a boom cycle, then it’s one that’s unfolding without its people.

Even the 2.7 percent GDP growth figure — contested by independent economists and still awaiting scrutiny by a promised expert committee — doesn’t inspire much confidence. Manufacturing remains flat, agriculture is heavily reliant on cotton output projections, and services are under pressure from weak domestic demand. If LSM needs to grow over 8 percent in the final two months just to make the math work, the real question is whether we’re building a recovery or back-calculating one.

The structural issues remain unaddressed. Energy pricing reform, privatisation, and revenue mobilisation are all still on the table, not in the ledger. The emphasis on macro stability, while necessary, has crowded out the urgency of inclusive growth. Migration should not be the only safety valve for economic stress. Nor should it be used to plaster over a failed jobs policy.

Long term, the country is setting itself up for a hollowed-out workforce and a weaker social fabric. When the most driven, educated, and technically capable choose to leave, what does that say about the economy they’re leaving behind? And who will be left to pay the taxes, staff the hospitals, build the infrastructure, and teach the next generation?

This is not a recovery. It’s a rotation — of people, problems, and narratives. And if the government continues to conflate temporary balance sheet relief without structural correction, it will miss the bigger picture entirely. A stable currency doesn’t mean a stable society. Low inflation doesn’t mean high living standards. A surplus on paper doesn’t mean a surplus of opportunity.

What it means, right now, is that nearly 285,000 people voted with their feet. That should worry anyone who’s still here.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025