MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices fell last week, reflecting global market trends and improved harvest forecasts, and analysts expect the downward trend to continue.
The price for new crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery by July-end was $224 per metric ton at the end of last week, down $3 from the previous week’s prices, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy. Wheat for delivery in August is priced at $222 per ton FOB.
“There was a short-term surge in the markets related to the Middle East conflict. Now this factor has been played out and everything is returning to the usual rails, to the previous downtrend,” said IKAR head Dmitry Rylko.
The SovEcon consultancy estimated new crop offers at $225-$228 per ton, compared with $226–$230 the week before.
SovEcon maintained its estimate of wheat exports in June at 1.2 million tons. IKAR has raised its estimate to 1.2 million tons from about 1 million tons.
IKAR’s wheat export estimate for July, issued at the start of the new marketing season, is 2.2 million-2.3 million tons.
The harvesting campaign has begun in several Russian regions, but initial yields are not particularly impressive, Sovecon noted. “The harvested area remains small - only a few tens of thousands of hectares - and we expect yields to improve in Rostov and Krasnodar. Overall, the results are broadly in line with our expectations but may prompt some market participants to reassess expectations for a ‘very good Russian wheat crop’,” Sovecon wrote in a weekly note.
The weather is favourable for crop formation and harvesting in Southern Russia, the agency said.
As of June 20, farmers had seeded 11.2 million hectares of spring wheat, down from 12.6 million hectares last year.
IKAR and SovEcon last week announced an increase in their 2025 wheat crop forecasts due to improved conditions in the southern parts of the country.
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