The International Labour Organization (ILO) has lowered its global employment forecast for 2025, projecting the creation of 53 million jobs instead of the previously estimated 60 million.
This translates into a reduction in global employment growth from 1.7% to 1.5% this year,
In its latest report, the United Nations agency said that the drop, equivalent to around seven million fewer additional jobs, reflects a downgraded global economic outlook, as GDP growth is expected at 2.8%, down from a previous projection of 3.2%.
“We know that the global economy is growing at a slower pace than we had anticipated it would. Our report now tells us that if geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue, and if we do not address fundamental questions that are reshaping the world of work, then they will most certainly have negative ripple effects on labour markets worldwide,” said the ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo.
ILO estimates that around 84 million jobs across 71 countries are directly or indirectly tied to US consumer demand, which are now increasingly at risk of disruption due to elevated trade tensions.
Most of these jobs, i.e. 56 million, are concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region.
The report also highlights troubling trends in income distribution.
The labour income share, which is the proportion of GDP going to workers, fell globally from 53% in 2014 to 52.4% in 2024.
Africa and the Americas experienced the largest declines.
“Had this share remained unchanged, labour income globally would have been US$1 trillion higher in 2024, or $290 more per worker in constant purchasing power terms,” stated the report.
ILO was of the view that the decline in the share of global income going to workers puts upward pressure on inequality and highlights a disconnect between economic growth and worker compensation.
Meanwhile, the ILO report points to a shift in employment towards high-skilled jobs.
It found that women are leading this trend.
“Between 2013 and 2023, the share of women employed in high-skilled occupations rose from 21.2 to 23.2%– while the proportion of men in high-skilled occupations was around 18% in 2023.
The report also found that nearly one in four workers may find their jobs transformed by generative AI.
The report found that a larger share of jobs in medium-skilled occupations have some degree of exposure, but a greater percentage of jobs in high-skilled occupations have high exposure, whereby existing tasks could potentially be automated by AI.
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