EDITORIAL: April’s export figures are a red flag, not a blip. And yet, there is no sense of urgency at the top. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), exports fell 17.7 percent month-on-month and 7.4 percent year-on-year in April 2025.
Imports, meanwhile, surged over 16 percent from the previous month, deepening the trade deficit. For a country perpetually on the brink of a balance of payments crisis, this should have triggered serious alarm. But instead, it has barely caused a ripple.
This complacency is all the more puzzling because the modest growth in exports over the past year was never built on a strong foundation. When exports rose earlier in the fiscal year, it was largely due to external disruptions — political and economic instability in Bangladesh, and India’s ban on rice exports — which gave Pakistan a temporary edge in global markets. These were circumstantial gains, not structural improvements. Now that regional competitors are recovering and markets are adjusting, the fragility of Pakistan’s export base is once again exposed.
The core problem is as old as the country’s economic playbook: we do not produce to export — we export what little surplus we can scrape together. That approach is outdated, unsustainable, and plainly inadequate for a country of over 240 million people with massive underutilised human capital.
Successful export-driven economies treat the global market as a primary outlet, not an afterthought. In Pakistan’s case, export planning remains reactive, and market development efforts are virtually absent.
There has never been a serious, coordinated push to understand foreign markets, identify niches, or build long-term relationships with international buyers. Trade diplomacy is lacklustre, export promotion is underfunded, and the private sector — particularly SMEs — are left to fend for themselves.
Exporters are still grappling with inconsistent tax rebates, shipping bottlenecks, and an underperforming customs apparatus. In such an environment, it’s no surprise that our export performance swings wildly based on external conditions rather than internal strategy.
Even the composition of our export basket speaks to the lack of vision. The top ten export categories remain stuck in low value-added textiles and basic agriculture—knitwear, garments, cotton cloth, rice, and towels. There has been little effort to climb the value chain or diversify into high-margin, technology-driven sectors.
Countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh have steadily moved up to electronics, footwear, and high-end garments. Pakistan, by contrast, is still exporting yarn and unfinished fabric in 2025.
Adding value to exports isn’t just about investing in better technology or improving product design — it requires a clear industrial policy, coordinated incentives, and strategic investment in human capital. None of that can happen unless the state decides that exports are a national priority, not just a residual line item on the current account. That decision, it seems, still hasn’t been made.
What has been prioritised instead — yet again — are remittances. Every time the trade deficit widens, the central bank and finance ministry turn to overseas Pakistanis to plug the hole. This dependency on remittances is both risky and regressive. It masks the real weakness of the economy and delays much-needed structural reforms.
More importantly, it creates a false sense of stability that quickly evaporates the moment inflows slow down.
A country of Pakistan’s size and strategic location should not be content with barely $30 billion in annual exports — especially when imports consistently hover around $50 billion. This imbalance cannot be fixed with currency depreciation alone. Nor will ad hoc incentives or short-term export packages deliver results. What’s needed is a deliberate shift in mindset: from managing deficits to building capacity.
That means setting concrete export targets, allocating institutional bandwidth to trade facilitation, and making market access a central component of foreign policy. It means streamlining logistics, easing regulatory burdens, and helping firms meet international compliance standards.
Above all, it means treating exporters as frontline contributors to national security and economic resilience — not as peripheral players to be tolerated during boom cycles and ignored during downturns.
If the leadership does not understand this, then it must be reminded: no country has achieved sustainable economic growth without a strong and consistent export base. The numbers from April are not just data points — they are warnings. And ignoring them is a luxury Pakistan cannot afford.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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