Swagger in the system

It’s the way they walk. And talk. And smile. They know they are in a sweet spot. It feels good. Victory makes you fly.

The swagger in the system is so darn unmistakable that even the opponents are acknowledging it. They know they are in a tight spot. It’s never been tighter. The light at the end of the tunnel has dimmed. When they were trying to beat the system, the system beat India. How do you beat that?

The swagger is not misplaced. The victory is big. The perception of victory is bigger. The consequences of victory are huge. The balance of power between the political opponents was never this unbalanced. Dialogue? None on the horizon. Deal? Nowhere in sight. Relief?

Ah, relief! If only it were as simple as PTI leaders want it to be. With conflicting statements from Imran Khan and contradictory explanations from his colleagues, the prospects of any relief have receded. Frustrated PTI leaders quietly acknowledge they are almost out of options. None has a clue what to do.

But the system is least bothered. The swagger tells its own story. While Khan gravitates back to his default rigidity and threatens agitation, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir have jetted off on a whirlwind tour of friendly countries. Official statements say they are thanking Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan and other nations for their support during the conflict with India.

But there’s more to these visits than mere expression of gratitude. All realise that regional dynamics have changed after Pakistan’s resounding military and diplomatic victory over India. The regional hegemon has been humbled. In many important capitals, there’s a rush back to the drawing boards. The meeting of foreign ministers of China, Pakistan and Afghanistan in Beijing, and warmer ties between Islamabad and Kabul is a reflection of these changing dynamics.

The Pakistani leadership wants to leverage the opportunity. It has a tailwind. There’s momentum in its outreach. People abroad are more receptive. Much can be gained.

But there’s worry too.

This worry is part of the agenda of the whirlwind tour. India knows it has been beaten. It will want to save face by lashing out again at some point. The threshold for conflict is lower now. This makes the situation very dangerous. The leadership in the twin cities wants to be ready for the next conflict. This readiness comprises diplomatic and military preparedness. The first round of the charm offensive is already underway. The next round will ensue as the Bilawal Bhutto-led team heads out to western capitals.

The agenda is heavy. It includes fresh linkages with China for the next round of military procurement. Fifth generation fighter jets wait in the wings. Their longer range missiles will go a long way, in more ways than one. The latest air defence system shall be a welcome addition to our arsenal.

Then there are the lessons learnt from the conflict. And the weaknesses identified. Internal analysis is already underway. The next round will happen. It’s only a question of when.

The political opposition is nowhere on the agenda. It’s almost as if they have become irrelevant. This may not be entirely true, but those are the vibes that the system is emitting. So what now?

Two options, say some opposition leaders. Either we acknowledge the power imbalance, admit our weaker bargaining position, and try find the best deal possible. Or we wait. We wait because we will get nothing at this point. With time perhaps the scales may shift back in our favour.

Khan appears to favour the latter option. Which means the PTI, for all practical purposes, will go into hibernation. It may continue making the right noises and perhaps display some defiant posturing, but all this would be mere symbolism. In real terms it has no cards left.

In other words, Khan stays in jail. With his swagger.

All others may sit back. There’s Eid.

Then there’s the federal budget. Then the long hot summer. Not much politics is going to be happening for many weeks now. Neither will any impactful protests break out. The system will use the time to grow stronger. The opposition will need to recover from the setback. The PTI is the worst hit. It may require some deep introspection. The next steps could be crucial in more ways than one.

October is not too far away. Many very senior and very important people retire that month. Many are promoted in their place. New appointments, fresh promotions and different power plays. Time is short and options shorter. What will Khan do?

As for the system, it has wind beneath its wings and a swagger in its step. It rules the moment. But how long will the moment last?

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025