Evolving power dynamics

Pakistan’s northern and northwestern borders are once again witnessing evolving power dynamics that have both regional and global strategic implications. The new power game alignments are increasingly shaped by a multipolar competition among China, India and the US, with Afghanistan as a volatile center and Russia watching the developments at an arm’s length. More specifically, it is the US-China rivalries playing out in the region with the US’ focus on India as a counterweight to China in South Asia.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan created a vacuum, which China cashed in on by discreetly shaping up its economic and geopolitical inroads into this territory abandoned by others. The government of Donald Trump has renewed its interest in Afghanistan and wants to mend its relationship - this time to improve its economic and strategic interest.

The abundance of rare mineral resources in Afghanistan fits into its global quest for laying hands on rare minerals. So is this the quest of China. Reportedly, a bill is being tabled in the Congress to remove Afghanistan from the terrorist list, thereby paving the way for the US to normalise its relationship with Afghanistan. India is also not behind in making its inroads into Afghanistan.

China, as of now, has a significant lead in this direction and a great amount of confidence has in the meantime been built between China and Afghanistan, leading to convergence of economic and geopolitical interests. A significant development in this direction is that Islamabad, Beijing and Kabul have agreed to deepen Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation and extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan.

This was announced on the occasion of the 5th trilateral meeting held this week at Beijing, which was participated by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Senator Ishaq Dar of Pakistan, Member of the CPC Political Bureau and Foreign Minister of the People’s Republic of China Wang Yi, and Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan Amir Khan Muttaqi.

The three foreign ministers reaffirmed trilateral cooperation as a vital platform to promote regional security and economic connectivity. They underscored the need for enhancing diplomatic engagement, strengthening communications, and taking practical steps to boost trade, infrastructure, and development as key drivers of shared prosperity. The ministers also underscored their shared commitment to countering terrorism and fostering stability and development in the region.

The extension of CPEC to Afghanistan means a great deal of benefits to the three countries being part of it. For Pakistan, it means a secured northern border and a strategic depth.

Extending CPEC to Afghanistan will give Pakistan greater influence on Afghanistan’s reconstruction efforts. It will certainly help improve bilateral ties as joint infrastructure and economic projects can serve as a platform for dialogue, reducing tensions and mistrust between the two neighbours. Above all, it will open up regional connectivity to the west for Pakistan’s northwestern border region (KP) and southwestern border region (Balochistan). This alone could be spun into an opportunity to achieve significant economic growth in these under-developed regions of Pakistan.

For Afghanistan, the extension of CPEC to its territory means an economic lifeline as infrastructure investment, energy access, jobs, and transit trade revenue can aid its recovery and stability. This diversified partnership means a reduction of its dependence on Western aid or regional powers like India. Above all, Afghanistan becomes an essential partner of regional integration and a part of transnational supply chains and logistics networks, which can accelerate its modernization.

China has a broader strategic goal in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) expansion. For China, it means a geopolitical outreach beyond Afghanistan to establish its footprints as a stabilising power in South-Central Asia with links to Russia, the Middle East and Europe via land routes. The next in line for BRI expansion is Iran, making Afghanistan a strategic connector.

This development of BRI and strategic alliance of the three regional stakeholders did not go unnoticed in Washington and Delhi. It has taken both the capitals by surprise. In due course, the US will react with its strategy in the region. These dynamics carry significant implications for Pakistan’s national security, economy, and regional influence. These could heighten pressure on Pakistan to choose sides in emerging bloc politics and limit Pakistan’s room to maneuver in balancing relations. Pakistan is too much dependent on western-funding as a lifeline for its fiscal sustainability and security arrangements.

To navigate these dynamics or challenges, Pakistan must prioritize regional connectivity and border stability and maintain strategic autonomy while deepening selective partnerships. It will be required to balance military readiness with economic diplomacy.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025