Excitement is in the air. Something is about to happen. A domestic ceasefire may be in the offing. Talk of some deal is getting louder. Is the anticipated breakthrough around the corner?
Wait. Take a deep breath. There is more to this than meets the eye.
To get a sense of the state of play, one fact is key. The relationship between the establishment and PTI was pegged on May 9. Now it is defined by May 10.
Consider the scope of this change and suddenly things become clearer. The central question about Khan’s release is now framed inside the new power differential between the two antagonists. If Khan is to receive any relief, such relief will be premised less on what the establishment can deliver, and more on what Khan can offer. It is a layered premise.
The top layer is all about building national unity anew. India has, ironically, healed many of our internal fissures. It has also given us a moment of national euphoria that most craved for. The recent conflict has reminded us that domestic disputes pale in comparison to external threats. The state, above all, recognises and – quite possibly – acknowledges the need to settle such disputes. The logic is sound. So is the timing.
But this is just the top layer.
The one below is coated with greater nuance. The military high command is now in a greater commanding position. Much more so than it has been in a very, very long time. It can bend the system to its will even more than it could before May 10. In contrast, PTI’s position – and to some extent its perception – is weaker now than it was prior to May 10. The power matrix has shifted. It can shift again. But not for a while. Not till Modi’s India continues to growl at us.
Flush from victory, the establishment can flex its domestic muscles without much worry about a pushback. The high command is reading the room. It would like the domestic political equation to add up to greater stability. But on whose terms?
Khan too is reading the room. If his family and friends are providing him with accurate and undiluted information, he will know very well that May 10 has trumped May 9 in terms of where PTI’s politics stands.
The ‘all or nothing’ strategy that he has pursued so far may not work in this changed reality. But veering away from this strategy risks diluting his political strength. Khan stands on unsteady ground. Relief, if it comes, will extract a steep price.
The third layer is cushioned by a logic of continuity. The hybrid system is shaped around an outcome-oriented plan laid out over years. Much political capital has been expended in this process.
The constitutional structure has been hammered to fit the mould. Any change, or realignment, or even new configuration runs the risk of upsetting the hybrid balance. Continuity can breed its own stability, even if all are not on board.
Will Khan’s release add to the desired stability? Or inject a factor that no one can actually control within a controlled environment? A predicament, if ever there was one.
Unless…
A deal is a deal by any other name. Add the three layers together, shake well, garnish with a generous dose of reality, and what do you get? A deal that reflects fresh realities driven by new power dynamics. Put simply, Khan will need to climb down more than the establishment for such a deal to materialize.
This climb-down would entail accepting the present system for what it is. It would also require an end to protest movements and confining criticism of the government to the parliament.
More importantly, it would also mean coming to terms with the fact that elections will not take place till the end of the five-year term (or somewhere close to that time). If all these were to constitute a deal, it would be a deal on the establishment’s terms.
What does Khan get in return, other than his release? He gets to circle back into the establishment-led system. He gains another shot at returning to power at some point in the future. He wins time to reorganize his disoriented and disunited party. He also carves himself an opportunity to start a second political innings as the most popular Pakistani politician.
It’s a tough ask, this. It is even a tougher sell for the PTI. The party’s rhetorical aggression has restricted its space for deft political maneuvers. But India has – much to its chagrin – given Pakistan a chance to heal itself. A moment is upon us. It will vanish soon.
In politics, they say, timing is everything. So is understanding power dynamics. For Khan, relief may be available. But the price will be steep.
Knock, knock. Who’s there?
Opportunity.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
The writer is a senior journalist & political commentator. His X handle is @fahdhusain
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