EDITORIAL: Pakistan’s decisive triumph in the recent military confrontation with India has sparked a wave of celebrations all across the country. Friday was officially observed as Yum-e-Tashakur (Thanksgiving Day) to honour the armed forces and the people for the victory in Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos.
While national pride is a natural response to battlefield success over a bullying arch rival, it would be unwise to view it as a conclusive victory. Considering the mindset of India’s Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi, this could be a moment of calm before another flare-up.
Modi who started off as a card-carrying member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), fountainhead of the far-right wing Hindu nationalist ideology, Hindutva, has risen to power building his image as strong uncompromising leader ready to take on Pakistan at the slightest hint of a real or perceived provocation.
Under him came the 2016 “surgical strikes” across the Line of Control following the Uri incident, and later in 2019 Balakot air strike to ‘avenge’ Pulwama attack – a false flag operation. That led to the downing of an Indian jet and capture of its pilot by Pakistan.
At the time, Modi had publically expressed the lament that had India acquired Rafael combat jets from France, the “result would have been different.” He used the April 22 horrific terrorist attack in Pahalgam area of the illegally Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir to unleash an assortment of India’s air power, including Rafael fighter jets, to “teach Pakistan a lesson”, but ended up losing six jets, among them at least three Rafael planes, shattering Modi and his RSS acolytes’ dream to see India emerge as a regional hegemon.
Instead, New Delhi sought Washington’s intervention, say reports, to secure a ceasefire. This happened at a time the Modi government was preparing for three major events: his own 75th birthday come September (not too long ago, he had denied a party ticket to veteran BJP leader L.K. Advani at the same point in life); Behar state elections in October; and start of the RSS’ centenary celebrations the same month, which he had wanted to mark by establishing India’s military superiority over Pakistan.
Despite agreeing to a ceasefire, Modi is still talking of a ‘new normal’, describing it as swift retaliation and escalation dominance. Given the chinks the short conflict has exposed in India’s military preparedness, the ‘new normal’ can have a rest, at least for now.
But the Modi government cannot afford to be seen as weak or indecisive. Faced with domestic pressure and international embarrassment, it needs to satisfy the desire for revenge. It could react in different forms such as covert operations, cyber-attacks, and hybrid warfare. The challenge for this side therefore is to effectively deflect and defeat any such escalatory moves.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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