In June 1970, during the Vietnam War, a counter-culture protest song “War” by Edwin Starr topped the charts for more than three weeks. The lyrics, such as “War, What is it good for, Absolutely nothing”, “War, I despise Cause it means destruction of innocent lives, War means tears to thousands of mother’s eyes, When their sons go off to fight, And lose their lives”.
The Vietnam War ended, but today, wars are systematically destroying humanity all over the globe. The subcontinent too has been a flashpoint more or less during over seven decades since Independence in 1947.
When wars, conflicts, tensions, or laws are in motion, the first casualty is trade. Trade has been, is, and will continue to be hostage to contentious issues.
Pakistan, which is geo-economic strategically well-placed, endeavoured through its economic diplomacy to enhance regional bilateral trade, and even investment. Pakistan strongly advocated a trade relationship within the South Asian region. Notwithstanding the fact that trade with India, both formal and informal, tilted in favour of India, there has seldom been a smooth sailing of the trade regime. On 5 August 2019, the Government of India revoked the special status, or autonomy, granted under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution to Jammu and Kashmir, occupied and administered by India, and has been the subject of dispute since Independence. Trade was the main casualty.
The recent event in Pahalgam on 22 April 2025 has further deteriorated whatever bilateral relations Pakistan and India enjoyed. When billions are spent on a high-tech arsenal of Armed Forces, when political dominance becomes wobbly, and when arrogance results in a false sense of invincibility, then there is this strong compulsion to demonstrate superiority. Hence, all available options, or even crafted alternatives, come into execution.
The Hindutva mentality plays heavy on millions of citizens. These are the reasons why the Indian leader wanted war with Pakistan. Naturally, Pakistan’s political leadership and Armed Forces were not sitting idle. Hence, war hysteria was very much in the air.
The inevitable did happen, and that too in the dead of the night. The civilian and religious edifices of three cities were subject to the dastardly attack. While the Delhi crowd sucked their lips in fiendish delight that terrorists have been eliminated, what tragically happened was that among the fatalities, there were young, innocent children.
The optics flashed around the world fiercely manifested that Modi was emulating his guru, mentor and role model, Banjamin Netanyahu. It was Gaza all over again. To add further fuel to the fire, Pakistan came under attack by sophisticated drones that spread around many cities of Pakistan. Fortunately, India witnessed the destruction of her Drone Brigade by the valiant forces of Pakistan. While the world continues watching from the sidelines, there is no formidable attempt by them to shout ‘Enough is Enough’.
The two nuclear states have already jumped into the battlefield. Pakistan has exhibited, and rightly so, restraint, but if the Pakistan Armed Forces reach a point and start roaring, then all hell will break loose for the devotees of Hindutva.
The Pahalgam false flag operation had raised the temperatures of animosity, vituperation, and hyper-jingoism, with each country announcing drastic measures to further heighten the tension in the region. India began the onslaught by putting the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance. Islamabad responded by putting the Simla Agreement on the back burner. Complete cessation of whatever trade was going on. This resulted in Pakistan banning all trade with India, and this ban continues with off and on exemptions. Visas were cancelled and visitors were ordered to leave despite the fact that many were visiting relatives, including those married to spouses from the other side of the border.
No more carriers from each country allowed to fly over the skies of the other country. Then the Indian Maritime Ministry got into action by prohibiting ships carrying imports or transit of all goods originating or exported from Pakistan, as well as disallowing even foreign ships from berthing in Indian Ports if they had cargo destined for Pakistan. The Indian Navy sent its aircraft carrier INS Vikrant towards Pakistan, but it beat a hasty and embarrassing retreat when its officers noticed that the Pakistan Navy was ready to attack it.
To further aggravate the volatile situation, India announced a Civil Defence mock drill in all its states, basically to instil fear in the minds of citizens and to tell the world that Pakistan was about to attack. It seems that Modi is applying, and promising his citizens, his adherence to Chanakya’s Timeless Doctrine, “Before you crush the snake, ensure it has exhausted its venom.” What he is conveniently overlooking is that he is facing a juggernaut which is the Pakistan Armed Forces as well as the combined wrath of 250 million denizens across the border.
He has mastered the art of braggadocio and manifesting himself as an Avatar of Vishvaksena (conqueror of all). In reality, he has himself fallen into a trap laid by his own people who are now tired of his megalomania. This is akin to the scenario of a sort of palace revolt like the inner circle of Julius Caesar who became the conspirators who believed his growing power and ambition threatened the Roman Republic and its traditions. It would soon be when Modi would shout “Et tu, Brute” to his close allies.
The Pahalgam scenario was designed to create circumstances that would ensure he fell from his self-built pedestal. He astutely backpedalled by throwing the war decision into the courts of the Armed Forces, thus disengaging himself from any future fallout. The last straw would be a humiliating defeat in the November elections in states such as Bihar. Then detestable braggarts, such as Arnab Goswami and his ilk, would be ranting and raging for his ouster. The die has been cast.
The burning point is why the world is so insensitive to the evolving dangerous situation in South Asia? Mediation and diplomacy is not seen in full force except through the predictable calls for sanity emanating out of various capitols and organizations such as United Nations. This of course is a tragedy. The world is focused on the genocide in Gaza, the Trump Tariffs, and Ukraine War, to name a few. Washington has a single-minded position on China. In this global ecosystem, South Asia is a lower priority of the developed countries.
Notwithstanding all these, the fact is that the Indo-Pak cauldron is on a hot stove and if the lid comes off, the consequences would be cataclysmic for the rest of the South Asian nations. Now is the time for the other SAARC countries to come forward and insist upon the two major countries to cool down. Mediation should be preferred, and these countries should also offer to do an impartial investigation of the recent Pahalgam killings.
World powers can play a subsidiary role to show global concern. If South Asian countries display neutrality, courage, and critical mass to convince India and Pakistan for cessation of hostilities, control over belligerent media and armchair analysts, and sit on the peace table, then reasonableness in the region is possible. Otherwise, when leaders of both countries have their finger on the nuclear button, then Armageddon may be on the horizon.
For private sector companies, especially those heavily involved in global trade, conflicts, or even natural disasters formidably impact on the continuation and smooth operation of business. Even events such as the blockade of the Suez Canal directly affect business.
For Pakistan and even India, the blow-up of war hysteria and escalating combat will ensue into increased shipping costs, risk insurance, anxiety of global business partners, and disruptions in internal and external transportation of goods and commodities. Pakistan’s economy is gradually scaling the hills of development with exports, remittances, and business in positive figures. Foreign investors, although still undecided whether to bring in foreign direct investment, are more confident about prospects than in the past.
For the people of both countries, who desire social, economic, and regional stability, it is time for all to vociferously demand dilution of the nexus of belligerent hardliners that includes retired and redundant defence analysts, unscrupulous advocates and facilitators of undocumented trade, extremist nationalists, bigoted politico-religious parties and organizations, and confrontational media anchors, etc.
“Hasad ki aag jo seeno mein pai jati hai/Ye aag khud nahi lagti, lagai jati hai” (the fire of envy in the hearts is not self-ignited, but measures lit by others) can best describe the bilateral relationship between South Asia’s two large neighbours, Pakistan and India.
The words of the iconic “I have a dream” speech of Rev Martin Luther King, Jr, take on a significant meaning when echoed in the Pakistan-India context: “We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools.”
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
The writer is former President of Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry
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