MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices were down slightly last week as weather for the new crop improved, but conditions remained volatile, analysts said.
The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in May was down $1 to $250 a metric ton compared to the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content at between $250 and $253 a ton FOB, compared to $250-$254 last week.
Weekly wheat exports were estimated at 0.45 million tons last week, up from 0.42 million tons the previous week, Sovecon said.
Sovecon increased its estimate for April wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 1.9 million tons, substantially lower than the 5.0 million tons exported in April 2024.
IKAR has also slightly raised its April wheat export estimate to between 1.6 million and 1.7 million tons, compared with last week’s forecast of 1.5 million to 1.7 million tons.
The weather continues to be volatile, however.
“In Russia’s Black Earth Region, temperatures dropped to -3 to -6 degrees Celsius, but the cold snap was brief. We believe there was no significant crop damage”, Sovecon said in a weekly note.
Temperatures are projected to rise above average as soon as this week.
Last week, analysts at IKAR signalled the possibility of an increased harvest forecast. However, the hot weather in the central and Volga region, which is replacing the frosts, may again have a negative impact on soil moisture reserves as well as on the sprouts that have already appeared. As a result, the forecast has not yet been revised, Rylko said.
More than 93% of winter grain crops in Russia are in normal condition, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Friday.
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