Slightly below-normal rainfall likely during April

LAHORE: A tendency for slightly below-normal rainfall is anticipated in northern Punjab, Kashmir and the adjoining areas of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during April 2025.

According to the monthly outlook for the month of April, as released by the Met Office, the southern regions are expected to experience rainfall that is closer to normal, with a reduced negative anomaly as per the region’s climatological patterns. Gilgit-Baltistan may get nearly normal rainfall during the forecast month.

It said the prevailing neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is expected to persist, alongside a neutral phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Earlier, normal to below normal rainfall was recorded across the country during March. Most parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and northern parts of Punjab experienced two to three rainfall spells of moderate to high intensity during the outgoing month. However, most areas of Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab remained dry, with nominal or no rainfall, leading to a continued soil moisture deficit. Additionally, above-normal temperatures were recorded across the country in the month of March.

So far as monthly temperature outlook is concerned, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has predicted that mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide, with maximum departure over Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The majority of models, it added, agree on the above-normal temperatures across the country with maximum likelihood over the southern coastal regions.

So far as the possible impacts are concerned, the near normal to below normal rainfall in southern parts may enhance soil moisture stress in areas that are already affected.

In addition, slightly below-normal rainfall in the upper parts of the country is likely to reduce water availability for agriculture in irrigated areas, enhancing the reliance on stored water resources.

Also, irrigation would be required on regular intervals for seasonal vegetables and newly sown Kharif crops in Sindh and southern Punjab. Spatial temperature gradient may cause strong winds, dust storm, and hailstorm which may affect the seasonal crops, vegetables and orchard.

According to PMD, the pollen season will come to an end in the middle of April.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025